President Bola Tinubu is still viewed as a viable contender in many northern states as Nigeria prepares for the 2027 presidential election, according to Arise News director of politics and former presidential adviser Akin Osuntokun. The analyst highlighted that, despite widespread insecurity and economic strain, Tinubu’s support map shows unexpected competitiveness, especially in Borno, Kwara and Kogi.
**Key observations from the interview**
- All three major candidates are performing relatively well in the North, but Tinubu’s standing is the most surprising.
- The president is projected to win in Borno State and remains competitive in at least nine other northern states.
- Osuntokun expects Tinubu to improve his vote share in Lagos compared with the 2020 election, potentially boosting his overall tally.
- Voter loyalty to political movements may outweigh the influence of individual governors, as illustrated by the limited impact of Governor Abba Yusuf’s defection to the All Progressives Congress (APC) on former Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso’s grassroots support.
What does the data suggest about Tinubu’s northern prospects?
Osuntokun explained that the current electoral map does not align with the “totalitarian disavowal” narrative that has surrounded Tinubu for months. He said the president is likely to “sleep well tonight” because the numbers indicate a solid foothold in the North, even as security challenges persist.
How might Lagos affect the overall outcome?
The analyst noted that Tinubu is expected to secure a larger share of votes in Lagos this time, a factor that could significantly influence his national total given the state’s sizable electorate.
Does a governor’s party switch alter voter behaviour?
When asked about Governor Abba Yusuf’s move to the APC and its effect on Kwankwaso’s support base, Osuntokun argued that grassroots allegiance to a political movement is the decisive factor. He stated that even a powerful governor cannot compel voters to change their preferences, suggesting that institutional power has limited sway over election results.
Overall, Osuntokun’s assessment paints a picture of a president who, despite facing daunting security and economic issues, maintains a competitive edge in the North and could improve his performance in key southern strongholds, shaping the dynamics of the 2027 race.