Mahmud Jega, a senior analyst at Arise, said on Monday that the ruling [All Progressives Congress (APC)](https://apc.ng) and all opposition formations are markedly unprepared for the 2027 general elections, with campaign activities only now beginning despite the election being under three months away.
**What evidence shows the delay?**
- The APC only inaugurated its presidential campaign council last week and plans to hold its first major rally ten days later.
- Opposition parties have yet to set up their own campaign councils or launch visible rallies.
- A published timetable indicates the presidential candidate will skip campaigning in 24 of the 36 states.
- Jega quoted, "The campaign is unfolding much later than any presidential campaign in the past four to five decades."
**Why launch the campaign in Katsina?**
Jega explained that the APC’s decision to start its 2027 presidential push in Katsina State appears designed to address mounting challenges in northern Nigeria, where economic hardship, insecurity, insurgency, banditry and perceived inequitable allocation of federal projects threaten the party’s support base. He added that the move is both political and strategic, aiming to win back northern voters after policies such as fuel subsidy removal and naira devaluation have hurt living standards.
**How could the election outcome be decided?**
The analyst stressed that winning outright in a state is not the sole determinant of victory. Performance in states where a candidate finishes second or third can be decisive, as the aggregate of these results ultimately shapes the final tally.
**What impact does the court ruling on overseas party chapters have?**
Jega noted that the recent decision by the [Supreme Court of Nigeria](https://www.supremecourt.gov.ng) to deny legal recognition to foreign chapters will likely hit the New Democratic Party (NDC) hardest, given its heavy reliance on diaspora fundraising and mobilisation. However, he argued that Nigerians abroad can still support candidates informally, donating in foreign currencies and campaigning without an official party office.
Overall, Jega warned that both the ruling party and its rivals are operating on a compressed timetable, risking logistical bottlenecks and reduced voter outreach as the 2027 election draws near.