Civil society groups in Lagos have warned that African governments risk weaponising climate commitments to expand fossil fuel extraction and cater to corporate interests. Speaking on Tuesday, the Corporate Accountability and Public Participation Africa (CAPPA) and the Africa Make Big Polluters Pay Coalition cautioned that the continent's green transition remains rhetoric without a genuine shift away from hydrocarbons.
The warning accompanied the launch of two evaluations examining Nigeria's transition framework and the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) across five nations. Titled Four Years On: Examining Nigeria’s Just Transition Plan and Nationally Determined Contributions in Africa: A Five-Country Policy Analysis, the studies reviewed policies in Nigeria, Cameroon, South Africa, Togo, and Uganda.
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The research highlighted that fossil fuel expansion, heavy reliance on uncertain foreign financing, carbon markets, and corporate interference threaten a just transition. CAPPA Executive Director Akinbode Oluwafemi questioned whether current policies genuinely protect citizens or merely unlock fresh profit channels for private conglomerates while local communities absorb the ecological fallout.
In Nigeria, the analysis revealed a glaring contrast between the nation's 2060 net-zero emissions target and its official ambition to extract three million barrels of crude oil daily by 2030. While acknowledging strides in renewable energy integration, experts noted that the green agenda is being superimposed onto an economy heavily reliant on oil and gas. Similar contradictions were observed in Cameroon and Uganda, where governments continue awarding new petroleum blocks alongside decarbonisation pledges.
The report also scrutinised the promotion of natural gas as a transitional fuel, noting that methane emissions significantly drive global warming. Furthermore, the studies addressed the massive energy deficit, citing World Bank data indicating that over 80 million Nigerians lacked electricity access as of March 2025.
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Experts expressed deep concern over the continent's dependence on foreign debt to fund climate action. Nigeria estimates a financial requirement of $337 billion between 2026 and 2035, anticipating 80 per cent from international sources. Similarly, South Africa reported that approximately 80 per cent of its recorded 2021 and 2022 international climate backing arrived as loans, raising fears of escalated debt burdens.
The coalition also criticised carbon offset schemes, warning that assigning emissions reductions to commercial forestry projects often shifts accountability away from major polluters and threatens local land rights. Activists from South Africa, Uganda, and Togo echoed these concerns, demanding immediate institutional accountability, grant-based funding, and robust protections for frontline populations ahead of the upcoming United Nations climate talks.