Rising global temperatures and the resulting increase in heat stress pose a serious threat to employment and economic output across several countries, according to new research released by the International Labour Organisation (ILO). The studies, which cover Ethiopia, Ghana, Lebanon, the Maldives, Senegal and Sri Lanka, project that climate change will increasingly endanger workers' health, safety and livelihoods, as well as business operations and national economies. The findings were unveiled at a high-level online event on October 29, 2026, and warn that unless governments, employers and other stakeholders take urgent action to strengthen workplace adaptation and climate resilience measures, the consequences could become significantly worse over the coming decades.
Under current projections, even under a low-emissions scenario, climate change is expected to result in the loss of approximately 1.78 million full-time equivalent jobs in Ethiopia, 550,000 in Ghana, 145,000 in Sri Lanka, 129,000 in Senegal, 21,700 in Lebanon and 2,400 in the Maldives by 2040. The economic impact is equally stark, with annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) losses projected to reach $33.3 billion in Ethiopia, $26 billion in Sri Lanka, $23.2 billion in Ghana, $10.5 billion in Senegal, $2.6 billion in Lebanon and $575.5 million in the Maldives by the same year.
The situation is expected to worsen considerably by 2060 under high-emissions scenarios, with projected job losses reaching between five million and six million in Ethiopia alone, while annual GDP losses could climb to between $79.4 billion and $310.3 billion. In Ghana, the Maldives and other countries covered by the studies, long-term economic and employment consequences are also expected to intensify as temperatures continue to rise.
The findings highlight the growing danger climate change poses to the world of work, particularly in agriculture, construction, fisheries and transport sectors, where workers are frequently exposed to extreme temperatures and have limited opportunities to avoid prolonged heat exposure. The studies were commissioned by the ILO with support from the Climate Vulnerable Forum and the Vulnerable 20 Finance Ministers (CVF-V20), through funding from the CVF-V20 Joint Multi-Donor Fund.
Lead author Andreas Floris said: 'Every single industry and every single workplace will stand to benefit from adapting workplaces to heat stress.'
Marlene Attallah, Deputy Director General at the Ministry of Labour in Lebanon, cautioned against treating workplace heat protection as an unnecessary financial burden on employers. She said: 'Protecting workers from heat stress should not be viewed as an additional burden but as an investment in workers' health, productivity and working conditions.'
Among the measures recommended by the studies are stronger occupational safety and health systems, expanded social protection, climate-resilient economic planning and workplace adaptation strategies. The ILO also emphasised the importance of social dialogue in developing effective responses that take into account the interests and experiences of governments, employers, workers and communities affected by extreme heat.
Alpha Dia, Professor and Researcher at Senegal's National Employers' Council (CNP), described social dialogue as a critical instrument for addressing the emerging challenge. He said: 'Social dialogue is our best adaptation tool to heat stress. It will protect workers while reinforcing the resilience of companies.'
Ella Frankel of the International Union of Food, Agricultural, Hotel, Restaurant, Catering, Tobacco and Allied Workers' Association (IUF) stressed the need to ensure that workers are not forced to sacrifice their health to retain their means of livelihood. She said: 'No worker should ever have to choose between their health and their livelihood.'
The ILO said advancing a just transition and promoting decent work would be essential to helping workers and enterprises adapt to changing climate conditions without compromising health, employment and productivity. It pointed to its Guidelines for a Just Transition towards Environmentally Sustainable Economies and Societies for All as an important policy framework for addressing the employment and social consequences of environmental and climate-related changes.