Fitch Ratings announced on Friday that Nigeria’s long‑term sovereign issuer default rating outlook has moved from Stable to Positive, confirming the nation’s credit rating at “B”. The agency highlighted the impact of ongoing economic reforms, a notable rise in foreign‑exchange reserves and easing inflationary pressures as the main drivers of the upgraded outlook.
**What factors influenced Fitch’s decision?**
The rating house pointed to the flexibility of the exchange rate, a faster‑than‑expected build‑up of external reserves and a decline in inflation as key contributors. Nigeria’s gross external reserves climbed to $55 billion in the most recent month, up from $32 billion recorded in mid‑April 2024.
**How does the outlook align with growth projections?**
Fitch noted that the positive outlook mirrors the World Bank’s forecast of a 4.3 % expansion in Nigeria’s economy for the current year. The agency expects growth to be driven largely by non‑oil sectors, with the formalisation of foreign‑exchange transactions, portfolio inflows, higher export earnings and remittances from Nigerians abroad supporting the outlook.
**What is the status of oil production?**
According to the agency, Nigeria’s crude oil output has met the target set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026. Increased domestic refining capacity is also helping to curb imports of refined petroleum products, easing pressure on foreign‑exchange demand.
**What are the inflation and fiscal expectations?**
Fitch projects average inflation to fall to 15.4 % in 2026, roughly half the level recorded in 2024. The agency also expressed optimism that ongoing tax reforms will boost non‑oil revenue mobilisation and strengthen government finances.
**What did officials say?**
Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Oyedele, said, “A positive outlook signals that the rating could be raised if current trends are sustained.” He added that the move validates the administration’s reform agenda, noting that all three major international rating agencies have taken positive actions on Nigeria in 2026.