The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank opened their October 2026 annual meetings in Bangkok with a stark warning: artificial intelligence could affect up to 40 % of all jobs worldwide, potentially reshaping the labour market on a scale comparable to a "slow‑moving tsunami." Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, who now receives daily briefings from an AI assistant, said the technology will fundamentally change how people work and live.
**Key facts:**
- The IMF’s January 2024 staff paper first highlighted that nearly 40 % of global employment is vulnerable to AI, rising to 60 % in advanced economies.
- Goldman Sachs estimates 300 million jobs are exposed to AI‑driven automation, with entry‑level roles hit hardest.
- The International Labour Organization (ILO) and Poland’s National Research Institute place about 25 % of worldwide jobs in occupations directly exposed to generative AI.
- McKinsey projects that by 2030, up to 30 % of U.S. work hours could be automated, while the World Economic Forum foresees 170 million new jobs created and 92 million displaced within four years.
- Georgieva warned that AI has already sparked a massive "demand shock and an investment shock," funneling billions into data centres and chip production.
What did the IMF say?
Georgieva described AI as a technology that will "augment, downgrade, or outright eliminate" a large share of jobs. She emphasized that the disruption is already visible, noting that 10 % of U.S. occupations now require active AI proficiency.
How do other institutions view the risk?
Goldman Sachs cautions that while automation does not instantly erase jobs, AI‑related pressures are strongest among low‑skill workers. The ILO warns that developing nations, lacking robust digital infrastructure and social safety nets, may suffer labour market upheaval before any productivity gains materialise. McKinsey’s timeline suggests a rapid acceleration of AI into cognitive tasks, not just physical labour.
Why is the entry‑level market most vulnerable?
Speaking alongside Georgieva, Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam highlighted the erosion of junior positions, leaving fresh graduates without pathways to acquire experience. He argued that the squeeze on the middle class forces displaced workers into lower‑paid sectors such as basic construction or server maintenance.
What are the fiscal implications for governments?
As AI‑driven capital inflows keep global GDP growth near 3 %, tax revenues from salaried workers decline. Reduced income‑tax receipts threaten funding for public services, infrastructure and health care, forcing policymakers to rethink how corporate productivity is taxed.
Can “small AI” offer a solution?
World Bank President Ajay Banga advocated for targeted, low‑cost AI applications in agriculture and primary health care to help developing economies reap benefits without massive infrastructure spend. However, he acknowledged that such measures alone cannot close the projected 40 % employment gap.
The consensus among the IMF, World Bank and independent analysts is clear: while AI fuels investment and short‑term GDP growth, it also poses a profound challenge to human employment and fiscal stability. Nations will need coordinated policy responses to balance productivity gains with the protection of workers’ livelihoods.