Angola's capital city, Luanda, is on track to become Sub-Saharan Africa's most populous metropolis by 2050, overtaking Lagos in the process, according to a new World Bank report. The report estimates that Luanda's population will rise from 11.4 million in 2025 to 20.3 million by 2050, representing an increase of 78 per cent over that period. Meanwhile, Lagos is projected to grow from 12.8 million to 16.2 million over the same timeframe, a gain of more than 25 per cent.
The World Bank report indicates that this demographic shift will significantly alter the ranking of the region's largest urban centres. Although Lagos is expected to lose its title as the region's most populous city, it will remain one of Sub-Saharan Africa's biggest and most established urban hubs.
According to the World Bank report, the top 15 most populous cities in Sub- Saharan Africa in 2025 are: Lagos (Nigeria), Luanda (Angola), Kinshasa (Congo, Dem. Rep.), Dar es Salaam (Tanzania), Johannesburg (S. Africa), Khartoum (Sudan), Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Abidjan (Côte d'Ivoire), Nairobi (Kenya), Onitsha (Nigeria), Accra (Ghana), Yaoundé (Cameroon), Kampala (Uganda), Kano (Nigeria) and Cape Town (S. Africa).
Looking ahead to 2050, the report projects that the top 15 most populous cities will remain largely unchanged, with only two additions — Bamako (Mali) and Mogadishu (Somalia) — expected to enter the list. The full 2050 ranking is: Luanda (Angola), Lagos (Nigeria), Kinshasa (Congo, Dem. Rep.), Dar es Salaam (Tanzania), Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Abidjan (Côte d'Ivoire), Khartoum (Sudan), Johannesburg (S. Africa), Onitsha (Nigeria), Yaoundé (Cameroon), Nairobi (Kenya), Kampala (Uganda), Accra (Ghana), Mogadishu (Somalia) and Bamako (Mali).
The report also highlights significant growth projections for two additional cities. Bamako's population is expected to increase by 80 per cent, from 4.2 million in 2025 to 7.6 million in 2050, while Mogadishu is forecast to grow by 64 per cent, rising from 4.4 million to 7.2 million. Conversely, despite expected increases of 36 per cent and 31 per cent respectively, Kano (Nigeria) and Cape Town (South Africa) are both projected to drop out of the top 15 rankings.
"The population of Angola's capital city, Luanda, is projected to increase by 78 percent from 11.4 million to 20.3 million. Luanda will overtake Lagos as SSA's most populous city. Nevertheless, Lagos's population will still swell by more than 25 percent, from 12.8 million to 16.2 million, between 2025 and 2050," the report shows.
The findings underscore the shifting demographic landscape across the continent, raising important questions about infrastructure planning, housing, employment and public services in both Lagos and Luanda as their populations continue to expand at different rates.
The report also identifies 13 other cities whose populations are expected to remain within the top 15 by 2050, suggesting a relatively stable but evolving list of Africa's largest urban centres over the coming decades.