Former Argentina captain [Lionel Messi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lionel_Messi) announced his retirement from international football this week and has instantly become one of the three leading candidates for the 2026 [Ballon d’Or](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballon_d%27Or). A market report from Polymarket Sports published on Thursday shows Messi now holds a 7% probability of winning the award, placing him behind Bayern Munich striker [Harry Kane](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Kane) and Barcelona prodigy [Lamine Yamal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lamine_Yamal).
Messi's final appearance for Argentina came in a friendly farewell match where the South American side beat Benin Republic 3‑0. The 39‑year‑old forward was previously listed among the 30 players shortlisted for this year's Ballon d’Or.
**What are the current odds for the leading candidates?**
- Harry Kane leads the market with a 54% chance of clinching the trophy.
- Lamine Yamal follows with a 40% probability.
- Lionel Messi sits third with a 7% likelihood.
Polymarket Sports commented, "Messi is now the third favourite to win the Ballon d’Or with a 7% chance," reflecting the shift in betting sentiment after his international retirement.
The award ceremony is scheduled for later this month in London, where the winner will be officially announced.