The [Nigeria Democratic Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigeria_Democratic_Congress) on Monday condemned the federal government’s warning that reinstating a petrol subsidy could push the naira to a range of N3,000‑N4,000 per US dollar, and called for an explanation of the persistent failure of domestic refineries and the crude‑oil mortgage that limits supply to the [Dangote Refinery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dangote_Refinery).
Key points:
- Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele, speaking at a press briefing in Bangkok during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Annual Meetings, said a subsidy revival could trigger capital flight, erode investor confidence and weaken the naira to N3,000, N3,500 or even N4,000 per dollar.
- Oyedele added that investors repeatedly question whether the government will abandon its reform agenda ahead of the next election cycle.
- President Bola Tinubu has maintained that the 2023 national budget made no provision for a petrol subsidy since June 2023, effectively removing it.
- NDC National Publicity Secretary Osa Director demanded answers on why refineries are not operating and why a large portion of Nigeria’s crude has been mortgaged to secure foreign loans, limiting the ability to feed the Dangote Refinery.
- Director quoted, "The most important aspect of the subsidy conversation is not yet addressed. Why are our refineries not working? Why did the APC government mortgage a sizeable portion of our crude oil to take foreign loans to the extent that we are unable to supply Dangote Refinery the needed crude oil to satisfy domestic consumption and demand?"
**What did the finance minister warn?**
Oyedele cautioned that re‑introducing the subsidy could cause a sharp depreciation of the naira, potentially reaching N4,000 per dollar, and could scare away both local and foreign investors, undermining the economic reforms pursued since 2023.
**Why is the NDC focusing on refineries and crude mortgages?**
Director argued that the core issue lies in the chronic under‑performance of Nigeria’s refining capacity and the decision by the previous APC administration to pledge large volumes of crude as collateral for overseas loans. He contended that solving these structural problems would render the minister’s “doomsday” forecast unnecessary.
**What is the broader context?**
Nigeria eliminated its petrol subsidy in June 2023 as part of a broader fiscal consolidation effort. Since then, the country has struggled with low refinery utilisation, relying heavily on imported fuel. The government’s recent borrowing strategy involved using future crude production as security, a move critics say hampers domestic supply chains, especially for the privately‑owned Dangote Refinery, which was built to reduce import dependence.
The minister’s remarks were made at the IMF‑World Bank gathering in Bangkok, where Nigeria is seeking to reassure lenders and investors of its commitment to fiscal discipline while navigating the political pressures of an upcoming election.
In summary, the NDC urges the government to prioritize fixing refinery operations and revisiting the crude‑oil mortgage arrangement before debating the merits of a petrol subsidy reinstatement.