Dangote Refinery Under Threat as Regulator Continues Issuing Fuel Import Licences, Claims Mogul

Aliko Dangote, the president of Dangote Industries Limited (DIL), stated on Wednesday that Nigeria's regulatory body for the downstream oil sector is still issuing licences for petrol imports, contradicting earlier assertions. He cautioned that this ongoing importation could weaken the operations of his refinery, which he believes has the capability to satisfy the nation's entire fuel requirement, thereby posing a risk to Nigeria's energy security.

Dangote asserted that the continued inflow of refined petroleum products into Nigeria is negatively impacting the petroleum refinery, even though it is equipped to meet the country's total fuel needs. The prominent businessman highlighted that despite the refinery's daily production capacity of up to 75 million litres of petrol, imported products are still entering the market, a situation he feels threatens national energy security.

He indicated that the persistence of these import licences conflicts with assurances from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). The regulator had previously stated that fuel imports would be restricted once domestic refining capabilities improved.

Dangote revealed that while his refinery has commenced exporting refined petroleum products to international markets, fuel imports into Nigeria persist, leading to market distortions. "They are still issuing licences despite that we can meet the demand. They are still killing us with importation. They are importing and we are exporting. Yes, we can do 75 million litres, but they are still back-loading," Dangote told THISDAY.

This statement comes after the downstream regulator had indicated it had ceased issuing new licences for petrol importation, citing that domestic refining was now adequately covering a substantial portion of Nigeria's demand. The NMDPRA had indicated this move was in line with the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), which permits fuel import licences only when local production falls short of national consumption.

The agency had further explained that no new petrol import licences were granted in 2026, as supplies from domestic refineries, particularly the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, were deemed sufficient for the local market. However, recent NMDPRA data for January 2026 revealed that an average of 24.8 million litres of imported petrol were consumed daily that month, although this figure dropped significantly to 3 million litres per day in February.

The NMDPRA reaffirmed its stance that import permits would only be reinstated if domestic production proved insufficient, emphasising that the policy aims to bolster local refining capacity and decrease Nigeria's reliance on imported fuel.

Dangote further alleged that many companies importing petrol into the country lack their own retail outlets or filling stations. He suggested this implies that some imported volumes might be diverted or smuggled after arrival in Nigeria.

The businessman drew a parallel with the challenges faced by local agricultural producers in Nigeria's rice sector, which he claimed was undermined by unchecked imports. "When they bring the goods, they smuggle them because they don’t have any filling stations. These importers don’t have filling stations. It’s affecting us. It’s the same thing they did with rice, they killed (the businesses of) every rice farmer. This is where we are," he stated, stressing the importance of job creation and energy security over pricing concerns.

Nigeria's fuel supply has historically depended heavily on imports due to the underperformance of state-owned refineries. However, there are heightened expectations following the operational launch of the Dangote refinery, which boasts a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, making it the world's largest single-train refinery. This facility is considered crucial for Nigeria's objective to overcome its long-standing dependence on imported refined petroleum products.

In related news, Nigeria's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yusuf Tuggar, suggested that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East underscores the need for Gulf oil and gas producers to view Nigeria as a partner rather than a competitor, aiding in supply diversification during crises. His comments emerged amid disruptions in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global supply route, caused by the conflict between Iran and other nations, leading to halted shipments and price increases.

Tuggar conveyed that Nigeria's undeveloped reserves present an alternative crude and gas source for Gulf states facing vulnerable global flows and sustained hydrocarbon demand. "It’s in line with what we’ve always advocated – that countries which might otherwise consider us competitors should partner with us and invest so they can diversify their market share, working with us," he remarked.

Nigeria, which has faced challenges from underinvestment, theft, and pipeline vandalism, has increased its total output to approximately 1.7 million barrels per day since President Bola Tinubu took office in 2023, with potential for further growth through new capital investment in fields and pipelines, according to Tuggar.

While some analysts speculate that strikes in Iran could lead to a deferral of African investments, Tuggar proposed the opposite could occur. "It could make them want to work with countries like Nigeria that are rich in gas and oil … to diversify market share for the benefit of both countries, or they could hold back."

Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates entered into a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement in January, which Abuja believes will stimulate trade and investment. Investors linked to Qatar have also expressed intentions to invest in Nigeria's gas sector, although specific timelines remain unconfirmed.

Tuggar noted that Nigeria has experienced the impact of higher oil prices due to its substantial imports of refined products, which increase transportation and food costs, particularly during the Ramadan fasting period when consumption typically rises.

However, he expressed optimism that Nigeria is better positioned to manage longer-term shocks as its domestic refining capacity expands. The privately owned Dangote refinery asserts it is operating at its full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, which is sufficient to meet domestic demand. Tuggar added that oil is expected to remain relevant for many years to come.

"At the moment the world consumes about 105 to 106 million barrels per day. I don’t see that changing much anytime soon, so we need to work together so we have enough hydrocarbons available," he concluded.