Dele Oye: Naira Rebound May Not Benefit Nigerians Without Fiscal Responsibility

Hon. Dele Kelvin Oye, the Chairman of the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics (AERE), expressed on Thursday that contrary to popular belief, the recent appreciation of the Naira may not bring immediate economic benefits to the Nigerian populace.

Oye noted that without fiscal discipline, effective facilitation for the private sector, and inclusive budgetary considerations, the increase in the value of the currency would remain merely a 'market statistic,' lacking any significant impact on everyday citizens.

He elaborated that while the Naira's strength indicates genuine reform initiatives, a responsible Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and the remarkable resilience of Nigerian entrepreneurs, factors such as fiscal irresponsibility, large deficits, debt servicing issues, and subpar spending practices act as hindrances.

As of February 20, 2026, the Naira has strengthened, trading around N1,340 per dollar in the parallel market, a notable improvement from previous lows exceeding N1,600.

Oye's comments were made following remarks by Vice-President Kashim Shettima, who indicated that under different intervention strategies, the Naira might have appreciated further to about N1,000 per dollar.

Despite the recent recovery in the Naira's value, Oye warned that many Nigerians may not experience an improvement in their living standards or find new economic opportunities, stating, 'The Vice President characterized the CBN's latest interventions as 'generous.' The bank has maintained a tight monetary policy, resolved nearly all foreign exchange backlogs, and granted limited access to licensed Bureau De Change (BDC) operators ($150,000 weekly cap from February 10, 2026) to facilitate liquidity.'

Oye described the predictability of adjusting interest rates appropriately and avoiding ad-hoc controls as essential for maintaining stable expectations, which has helped recover reserves to over $50 billion, the highest in 13 years. He commented on the fiscal challenges: 'Fiscal dominance is when government expenditures and borrowing overshadow the CBN's attempts to combat inflation, creating a struggle between the Finance Ministry and the CBN that often results in higher inflation or instability. Nigeria is currently experiencing this conflict.'

He noted that the 2026 budget, named 'Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity,' is set at about N58.18–N58.47 trillion ($37.7–$41.5 billion) with a deficit of N23.85 trillion, roughly 4.28% of GDP.

Debt servicing claims a significant portion of government revenue, which continues to fall short of expectations, despite an increase in Federation revenue from N16.8 trillion in 2023 to N31.9 trillion in 2024.

Oye highlighted that excessive borrowing and the high cost of public spending mostly support non-essential projects, rather than investments that generate income. He expressed concern that inflation continues to decline gradually; according to the National Bureau of Statistics, headline inflation decreased to 15.10% in January 2026 from 15.15% in December, although food prices remain high, impacting households negatively. He cautioned that unchecked fiscal dominance could erode the CBN's credibility.

He mentioned that government efforts still rely heavily on stringent tax collection methods rather than promoting trade facilitation. He emphasized the need for efficient regulatory processes, better licensing timelines for businesses, and reducing excessive levies to encourage private-sector growth. 'We must shift priorities from mere consumption to investments that will enhance private investment and productivity,' he stated.

Oye also referred to optimism surrounding the Naira's potential, citing Aliko Dangote's forecast that the currency might appreciate to ₦1,100 per dollar. He noted that Dangote Refinery significantly reduces fuel imports, thereby conserving foreign exchange—highlighting that entrepreneurship is crucial to creating real economic value.

The refinery currently produces aviation fuel and other products, with plans to expand capacity to boost production levels, which in turn can benefit various sectors like construction, logistics, and agriculture by reducing reliance on imports and promoting job creation.

In conclusion, Oye urged a comprehensive approach towards fiscal discipline, efficient spending, and measures to improve the business climate. He called on the federal government to limit borrowing, utilize improved allocations for fiscal responsibilities, and focus on economically viable projects rather than unnecessary expenditures. He stressed the importance of strategically linking sub-national revenue streams to revenue-generating projects, improving cash transfers, and investing in critical sectors such as early childhood education and health.

With warning signs from the World Bank about productivity losses leading to increased poverty, Oye concluded by underscoring the importance of macroeconomic stability in benefiting the average Nigerian household, with a substantial increase in those living in poverty noted from 87 million in 2023 to 139 million in late 2025.