Industry experts cautioned that without solid project preparation, dependable technology and strong local technical support, Nigeria’s rapidly expanding solar sector may lose the confidence of investors as the Renewable Energy Forum Africa (REFA) convenes in Lagos on 25‑26 November 2026.
Key figures highlighted include: Nigeria now operates roughly 620 MW of solar capacity, the largest installed base in West Africa; annual installations rose from about 15 MW in 2019 to 123 MW in 2024, fell to 79 MW in 2025, and reached 89 MW operational in 2026 with another 115 MW under construction; the commercial‑and‑industrial segment has grown at an average of 32 % per year since 2021, reaching 82 MW in 2024, making Nigeria the continent’s second‑largest market after South Africa; and solar mini‑grid capacity stands at approximately 132 MW, accounting for 31 % of Africa’s total. “Capital will not flow at the required scale simply because development cases can be better. Projects must be commercially viable and bankable,” the panel asserted.
What project standards did the panel emphasise?
Representatives from Jinko Solar, JA Solar, AIKO Energy, AlphaESS and the Africa Mini‑grid Developers Association warned that investors need confidence in clear financial structures, sound technical designs, realistic repayment plans and credible feasibility studies before committing funds. They stressed that unreliable equipment and poor after‑sales service could quickly erode trust, highlighting the need for local service centres, spare‑parts availability and technology suited to Nigeria’s operating conditions.
Why is Lagos a focal point for solar investment?
According to Benjamin Clark, Director of Operations at the Africa Solar Industry Association (AFSIA), Lagos faces a severe electricity shortfall, with demand estimated at about 12 GW while the national grid supplies roughly 1 GW. This gap creates a lucrative market for embedded generation and private‑sector electricity solutions, making the city a prime target for developers seeking to tap unmet demand.
What regulatory measures are encouraging growth?
New mini‑grid regulations introduced in April permit standalone mini‑grids up to five megawatts and grid‑connected mini‑grids up to ten megawatts, while smaller systems benefit from streamlined registration. In June, net‑billing rules were rolled out, allowing businesses with solar installations between 50 kW and 1.5 MW to export excess power to the grid in exchange for bill credits. Additionally, the $300 million Distributed Renewable Energy Fund and the $750 million Distributed Energy Access through Renewable Energy Scale‑up programme aim to back smaller projects and broaden electricity access.
What commitments have manufacturers made?
Esther Eyenobong of Jinko Solar disclosed that the firm signed framework agreements covering more than 600 MW with Nigerian partners in 2026, targeting commercial, industrial and residential rooftops. She cited a 2.5‑MW photovoltaic plant at the National Theatre in Lagos and a 4.8‑MW energy‑storage system as examples of the growing integration of solar and storage technologies.
What does the future look like for Nigeria’s solar market?
If the projects currently under construction are completed, annual additions could exceed 200 MW in 2026, potentially marking the strongest year for solar deployment in the country’s history. Sustaining this momentum will depend on developers delivering financially sound, technically robust projects that demonstrate measurable economic benefits, reliable power supply and long‑term returns for investors.