Nigeria generated an estimated N161.1 trillion from both oil and non-oil sectors between 2010 and 2024, with current data highlighting that tax and other non-oil revenue streams now form the dominant part of the country's fiscal income.
A report by Quartus Economics, which analysed federation revenues over this period, suggests Nigeria has moved from a system heavily reliant on commodities to one where government earnings are increasingly derived from taxes, rather than oil exports.
The firm's report, titled "Nigeria Unshackled: Inside the Steady Rise of a Fiscal State," found that oil-related sources or activities contributed N80.6 trillion, approximately 49.99 per cent, while non-oil sources accounted for N80.57 trillion, or 50.01 per cent.
Furthermore, the report indicated that tax revenues alone generated an estimated N62.3 trillion between 2023 and 2025, with the non-oil sector being the primary contributor. This transition, the report states, followed over a decade of economic volatility, policy adjustments, and structural changes prompted by the global oil price downturn in 2014.
Prior to this crisis, oil typically constituted about three-quarters of Nigeria's public revenues, rendering government finances highly susceptible to external market fluctuations.
Between 2014 and 2024, following the 2014 oil price crash, Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita fell from over $4,000 to approximately $1,120, and poverty levels escalated, with an additional 65 million Nigerians falling into poverty by 2023.
However, in the last decade, and particularly over the past five years, Nigeria has significantly broadened its non-oil revenue base through tax reforms, enhanced collection methods, and administrative enhancements.
"During the 15-year period between 2010 and 2024 (both years inclusive), the Nigerian federation earned N161.1 trillion in revenues: 80.6 trillion (49.99 per cent) from oil-related sources or activities and 80.57 trillion (or 50.01 per cent) from non-oil sources," the report elaborated.
By 2024, oil revenues represented only about a quarter of total federation revenues, a substantial decrease from earlier levels. In contrast, tax revenues saw a significant increase, making up as much as 87 per cent of total revenues, with non-oil taxes forming the largest part of this growth.
Tax revenues nearly tripled between 2022 and 2025, rising from just over N10 trillion to more than N28 trillion. During the same period, Nigeria generated approximately N62 trillion in taxes, with non-oil sources contributing over 70 per cent.
The report also noted that in 2025, tax collection expanded by 30 per cent, largely driven by non-oil taxes, which accounted for nearly 84 per cent of the increase in federally collected taxes. "Within three years, Nigeria’s tax revenue nearly tripled from N10.18 trillion in 2022 to N28.29 trillion in 2025," the report stated.
Nigeria's recent progress in revenue growth and its composition may still be considered modest, given the ongoing reforms in fiscal policy and revenue administration processes, the report observed.
Over the last five years, particularly since 2023, Nigeria's federation revenue has grown rapidly from previously underestimated sources, demonstrating stability and healthy diversification.
"As of 2024 year-end, total revenue was nearly 4x 2019 revenue, and by 2025 year-end, tax collections were more than 5X 2019 levels," the report revealed.
Analysts at Quartus Economics pointed out that a decade after the oil price collapse, Nigeria's revenue base has shifted from a concentrated reliance on oil and a dominance of non-tax revenue to a resilient and sustainable mix.
"The contribution of oil to total federally collected revenues is down from 73.9 per cent in 2010 to 25.8 per cent in 2024. Non-oil revenue grew from 25 per cent in 2010 to nearly 75 per cent of revenues by 2024.
"From 44.5 per cent in 2014, non-oil taxes now account for nearly three- quarters (75.9 per cent) of federally collected taxes, as the contribution of oil taxes dropped from nearly 55 per cent in 2015 to less than a quarter in 2025," it was explained.
Despite these achievements, the report cautioned that the repercussions of the 2014 crisis continue to significantly impact the economy. A primary concern is the rapid escalation of public debt. As revenues declined in the years following the oil price crash, the government turned to borrowing to cover deficits and fund infrastructure projects.
Consequently, Nigeria's debt-to-GDP ratio has more than tripled over the past decade, and debt servicing costs have seen a substantial rise.
Debt servicing as a proportion of revenue increased from under 7 per cent in 2012 to nearly 40 per cent in recent years, underscoring the growing financial strain of debt repayments on government finances.
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