Study Highlights Electricity Issues as Major Hurdle for Electric Vehicle Adoption

A recent investigation has uncovered that electric vehicles (EVs) may achieve competitive pricing in several African nations well ahead of 2040.

Led by researchers from ETH Zurich and the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), the study was conducted in partnership with various African universities.

This insight emerges in light of the sluggish acceptance of EVs across many African nations, notably Nigeria.

Despite the emergence of numerous electric vehicle offerings in Nigeria, the adoption rate has notably lagged, primarily due to concerns surrounding the necessary infrastructure, especially in terms of charging facilities.

Published in the journal Nature Energy, the study disputes the longstanding belief that petrol and diesel vehicles would continue to predominate in Africa until the middle of the century. The findings reveal that electric vehicles, when integrated with solar-powered off-grid charging systems, can be financially beneficial in diverse regions across the continent — particularly for smaller vehicles and two-wheelers.

As Africa’s vehicle population is projected to double by 2050, at a rate quicker than any other continent, the study suggests that the essential inquiry has shifted from whether mobility will expand to what type of mobility will be embraced in Africa.

“Many projections have assumed that combustion engine vehicles would continue their dominance in Africa until 2050,” stated Bessie Noll, the lead author and a senior researcher at ETH Zurich.

He further expressed, “Our research demonstrates that under specific circumstances, e-mobility can be realizable much sooner than anticipated.”

Central to this research is its emphasis on off-grid solar charging. Many African nations face unreliable or nonexistent electricity grids, previously identified as critical barriers to EV uptake. To tackle this, the team evaluated 52 African countries and over 2,000 locations, developing models where electric vehicles receive charge from dedicated solar systems paired with stationary batteries.

The study concludes that a compact solar installation can effectively power a small vehicle traveling approximately 50 kilometers daily, with charging costs representing only a minor component of total vehicle ownership expenses. For electric scooters and motorbikes, the economic feasibility is already quite compelling in numerous locations.

“Even we were astonished by the findings,” remarked Christian Moretti, the secondary lead author and a research scientist at PSI. “These systems are considerably more economical than commonly believed, and in many situations, they are even more dependable than the current electrical grid.”

The decreasing costs of solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles — notably lower-priced models from China — are contributing to this momentum.

The researchers emphasize that Africa should not be treated as a monolithic market. The rate of EV adoption will differ significantly based on factors like financial conditions, available infrastructure, and policy frameworks.

The study further segmented Africa into nine zones based on cost efficiency and analyzed six vehicle categories, including both small and large two- wheelers, as well as cars and minibuses of various sizes, across the timeframes of 2025, 2030, and 2040. In a growing number of countries, battery- powered electric vehicles are already demonstrating a total cost of ownership advantage over petrol and diesel alternatives.

Financing is identified as the foremost obstacle.

One of the key observations of the study is that the major impediment to electric vehicle adoption in Africa is not technological, but rather financial.

Electric vehicles necessitate a larger initial investment, and in many African countries, loans can be prohibitively expensive due to perceived risks, significantly delaying adoption, even when EVs are more economical to operate over time.

“If the cost of financing can be lessened, the transition will speed up dramatically,” Noll asserted.

The researchers propose various options such as government assurances, inventive financing strategies, and international support frameworks. Moreover, they highlight opportunities for local assembly, along with new services and job opportunities throughout the electric vehicle supply chain.