Iranian clerics are in the process of selecting a new Supreme Leader following the death of Ali Khamenei, who was killed during missile strikes executed by the United States and Israel at the age of 86 and in frail health.
Before Khamenei’s demise, senior officials in Iran had already developed plans for succession, though the actual circumstances of his death were likely unforeseen.
According to Mehr News Agency, which is linked to the Iranian state, a successor has been identified, although “some obstacles” must be addressed prior to the public announcement of the name. Hojjatoleslam Jafari, a member of the Assembly of Experts, expressed hope that the eventual decision would resonate positively with the Iranian populace.
He remarked, “The delay in appointing the third leader is both unfortunate and unwelcome for all, and there is no other choice but to show confidence in our representatives during this challenging time.” The New York Times previously suggested that the frontrunner to take Khamenei’s place is his second son, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Christian Emery from University College London noted that Mojtaba's potential rise to leadership could spark controversy. “Although he is perceived to have significant influence within Iran, he faces challenges such as a lack of governmental experience and fears within the political and clerical circles that a return to hereditary leadership could jeopardize the Iranian Revolution's fundamental principle of rejecting royals,” Emery stated.
The BBC has reported that Khamenei had previously cautioned against transferring power through heredity and had hinted at excluding Mojtaba from succession.
Nevertheless, Mojtaba is thought to maintain close connections with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which could enhance the organization's power if he were appointed. Emery mentioned that these associations originated during Mojtaba’s participation in the Iran-Iraq War, a pivotal period in the Islamic Republic's history.
Should Mojtaba ascend to the role of Supreme Leader, it is likely to solidify the vast economic and political influence that the Revolutionary Guards amassed during Ali Khamenei’s tenure.
However, this appointment could also place him in danger. Israeli official Israel Katz recently commented on the platform X, indicating the next Iranian Supreme Leader would be “a clear target for elimination,” irrespective of who fills the position.
The missile strikes that claimed Khamenei's life also reportedly resulted in the deaths of several family members, including his wife Zhara Adel, his mother Mansoureh Khojasteh Bagherzadeh, and one of his sons. Since the Iranian Revolution, the country has only had two Supreme Leaders: the first was Ruhollah Khomeini, who ruled until his death in 1989, followed by Ali Khamenei as the second.
Under the Iranian constitution, the Assembly of Experts, composed of 88 elected clerics, is tasked with appointing the next Supreme Leader through a majority vote. Within this assembly, a smaller committee is responsible for creating a shortlist of suitable candidates for the final selection process.
Emery pointed out that this preparatory groundwork is typically completed well in advance. For instance, when Khamenei took office in 1989, the Assembly of Experts reportedly took just 24 hours to confirm him.
However, the ongoing conflict may complicate these proceedings. Emery observed that it remains unclear how safely the Assembly could convene, as such a gathering could provide an opportunity for Israeli or American forces to eliminate additional Iranian leaders.
Among other possible candidates are Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, Iran’s chief justice and a hardline figure noted for his actions against anti-government protests, and Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Islamic Republic's founder. Analysts suggest that Hassan's family background and links to both reformist and conservative groups may render him a potentially stabilizing figure for the regime.
Another contender is Alireza Arafi, who serves on both the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts. Observers believe Arafi might be regarded as a relatively safe choice who would likely uphold Khamenei's policies without contesting the Revolutionary Guard's authority.
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