African Conflicts Underrepresented at Munich Security Conference – China's Serious Engagement

The recent Munich Security Conference underscored Africa's often neglected significance in global discussions, particularly evident as pressing issues like the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Indo-Pacific gripped the spotlight. Africa found itself struggling to gain attention amid discussions dominated by other global crises.

Jakkie Cilliers, Chair of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) Board of Trustees and Head of its African Futures unit, pointed out, "The focus at the Munich Security Conference primarily revolves around hard security and military matters, especially due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and deteriorating transatlantic relations. This emphasis has led to a diminishment of attention on various other critical issues."

Cilliers, in collaboration with ISS Special Projects Head, Ottilia Maunganidze, has been advocating for an increase in awareness surrounding African conflicts. They played a vital role in ensuring that complexities from Sudan's civil war and issues in the Sahel were not overlooked during a side event co-hosted by ISS and the Hanns Seidel Foundation (HSF).

This side event focused on how Africa can enhance its security presence amidst a waning global focus. Markus Ferber, the HSF Chair, noted that ethnic conflicts and civil wars in places like Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) necessitated Africa's presence on the MSC's agenda.

The inadequate global responses to these crises were troubling. Ferber highlighted the reduction of foreign assistance and peacekeeping efforts, alongside the increasing activities of private military companies like Russia's Wagner Group, which are allegedly involved in human rights abuses, smuggling, and misinformation across the continent. Additionally, there have been reports of these companies misleading Africans into combat roles in Ukraine.

Maunganidze emphasized the urgency, mentioning over 50 ongoing armed conflicts throughout Africa, including places like Cabo Delgado in Mozambique and El Fasher in Sudan, accounting for 40% of the global total and displacing 45 million individuals. Compounding these challenges, high crime rates and insufficient law enforcement contribute to this instability.

Addressing the decline of international support, Maunganidze raised the question of how Africa could secure itself without deteriorating democratic principles or diverting vital resources from education and healthcare systems.

Cilliers projected a concerning forecast, suggesting that Africa is likely to remain the least stable region globally for the foreseeable future due to its youthful population, high unemployment rates, and weak governance. He noted that effective state authority is crucial for security and stressed that consolidating state power is vital but should not lead to repression. He explained, "The essence of a state lies in its control over territory and violence sources, a standard many African countries struggle to meet."

Moreover, Cilliers criticized the current orientation and preparedness of Africa’s military and police forces, stating that their training and resources must be realigned towards addressing internal threats instead of focusing on traditional military equipment like warships and fighter jets.

He pointed out that the African Union (AU) has not sufficiently risen to meet the gaps left by decreasing international peacekeeping support. Cilliers referenced the AU’s Peace Fund, which, with only $400 million collected, is barely adequate for sustaining a single peacekeeping mission for half a year.

In response to South Africa’s recent decision to withdraw troops from the UN Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO), Wagner expressed her disappointment, emphasizing the longstanding partnership and its contributions to regional stability. This decision reflects broader concerns regarding the effectiveness of multilateral diplomacy, as highlighted by the alarming lack of response from the UN Security Council regarding the killing of peacekeepers in the eastern DRC by M23 rebels.

In this context, the role of China becomes increasingly significant. Cilliers indicated that China is beginning to fill the gaps left by the US, especially in military partnerships and police support in Africa.

According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, China has become the largest supplier of arms to Africa, surpassing Russia. Between 2015 and 2019, Russia was responsible for 47% of the continent's arms imports, compared to China's 16%. Yet, from 2020 to 2024, China increased its share to 21%, while Russia's diminished to 19% due to its focus on the war in Ukraine and related sanctions.

Cilliers further remarked on the contrasting narratives presented during the Munich conference, where European leaders expressed a new awareness of their security needs while the Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, sought to uphold a globally-oriented rules-based system. Cilliers emphasized the alignment between African and Chinese perspectives on international relations, highlighting a mutual preference for non-interference and respect for sovereignty, even if it permits authoritarian practices.

Peter Fabricius, a consultant with the Institute for Security Studies, articulated these observations during the discussions, emphasizing China’s growing influence over Africa's geopolitical landscape.