Atiku, Obi, Aregbesola, Kwankwaso: A Pattern of Political Disruption

A particular style of politics is characterised by disruption rather than construction; it arrives with grand promises but leaves behind fractured systems and depleted parties. In Nigeria's political landscape, figures like Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rauf Aregbesola, and Rabiu Kwankwaso frequently exemplify this destructive cycle. Their political journeys are marked not by consistent development, but by trails of instability, with personal ambition often overshadowing party loyalty.

Atiku Abubakar is described as a perpetual political mover, never settling, always seeking the next opportune platform. His career, spanning multiple parties from the PDP to the ACN and APC, illustrates a recurring sequence of joining, contesting, and exiting when personal ambitions face obstacles. Each departure causes rifts, intensifies party divisions, weakens structures, and frequently leads to protracted legal challenges post-election. For Mr. Abubakar, elections often transition from conclusion to prolonged courtroom battles, fostering uncertainty and undermining the stability of the political system.

Peter Obi's path, while less overtly tumultuous, is equally strategic. His initial rise within the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) was accompanied by declarations of loyalty, but he departed when the party's limitations conflicted with his aspirations. His subsequent moves to the PDP and then the Labour Party showcase a strategic nomadism that often masquerads as principle. Each transition fragments existing structures, reshapes allegiances, and leaves behind dispersed support bases. This pattern, framed as advancement, often involves extracting momentum from one platform to relocate before accountability or repercussions take hold.

Rauf Aregbesola's political trajectory exemplifies internal conflict. Once a key figure within a political faction associated with Bola Ahmed Tinubu, he eventually became an internal saboteur. Disagreements in Osun State escalated into prolonged internal party conflicts, weakening the party significantly. The damage was gradual but progressive, marked by successive disputes until unity collapsed. By the time of his eventual departure, the party's structures were already fractured, its base destabilized, and its machinery impaired.

Rabiu Kwankwaso's political narrative follows a similar pattern, impacting a regional base and extending to national parties like the PDP and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). His influence is often characterized by a blend of personal ambition and strategic realignments that frequently lead to the disintegration of prior alliances. Each manoeuvre solidifies Mr. Kwankwaso's personal brand, while testing the patience and loyalty of his followers, leaving behind political voids and party structures in need of reconstruction.

The current situation within the African Democratic Congress (ADC) reflects this disruptive trend. A previously stable platform is now grappling with internal conflicts and contested leadership. The involvement of prominent figures has not resolved the issues; instead, it has intensified internal power struggles, blurred the party's direction, and strained its unity under the pressure of competing ambitions.

Attributing these crises to institutions like the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) or the courts is seen as a diversionary tactic. These bodies operate within defined roles: overseeing elections, resolving disputes, and enforcing regulations. They do not create political crises; they manage the fallout. The fundamental issue, according to the analysis, lies with the politicians themselves, whose political approach treats parties as transient shelters and disagreements as catalysts for total disruption.

The common thread uniting Atiku, Obi, Aregbesola, and Kwankwaso is not a shared ideology but a constant, deliberate, and destabilizing momentum. Parties are viewed as instruments to be utilized rather than platforms to be built. Alliances are frequently traded rather than cultivated. This persistent cycle inevitably results in fractured political structures, weakened governance systems, and a political environment repeatedly destabilized by unchecked ambition.

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) faces a clear imperative: if it aims to be a viable contender in the 2027 general elections, it must urgently restore internal order. Stability, unity, and disciplined leadership are essential for any serious political entity. The ADC cannot expect to gain national credibility while its identity is defined by internal disputes and public acrimony.

In parallel, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has firmly responded to allegations linking it and President Bola Tinubu to the ADC's leadership crisis. APC National Publicity Secretary Felix Morka has vehemently denied these claims, labelling them as unfounded and self-serving narratives from a party struggling with its own internal issues. Morka asserts that the ADC's crisis, including its recognition issues with INEC, is entirely "self- inflicted" and stems from the party's failure to adhere to its own constitution and manage its internal succession conflicts, rather than any external interference from the APC.

Similarly, APC National Secretary Surajudeen Ajibola Basiru dismissed the notion that the Tinubu administration aims to establish a one-party state. He pointed out the existence of numerous registered political parties in Nigeria capable of participating in elections, emphasizing that the ADC's situation is a domestic dispute, not a result of suppression. These statements serve as strong denials, challenging narratives that detract from institutional integrity and shift responsibility away from political actors who should be addressing their internal challenges.

For the ADC to emerge as a credible opposition force in 2027, its leaders must cease externalizing blame, abandon victimhood narratives, and demonstrate the political maturity required to build a party deserving of national trust. Nigeria's political landscape, already strained by ambition and personality- driven politics, cannot afford further fragmentation of the opposition. The ADC must overcome its internal struggles, resolve leadership disputes responsibly, and present a unified front capable of meaningful competition to influence the 2027 general elections.

E -Signed:

Chief Rufus Ikenmi

Secretary, ADC

Board of Trustees

Hon Kyauta Yakubu

National Women Leader