Goldman Sachs Warns Oil Prices May Reach $150 If Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Continue

Goldman Sachs has issued a warning that oil prices could exceed $150 per barrel by the end of the month if disruptions affecting crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz persist. This scenario could see global oil prices climbing above $100 a barrel within a matter of days.

The investment firm reported that oil transit through this vital maritime channel, which connects key Middle Eastern oil producers with international markets, has seen a more significant decline than initially anticipated due to the recent U.S.-Israeli military action against Iran.

Goldman Sachs estimated that oil flows through the strait were expected to decrease to around 15% of their usual levels. However, with Iran enforcing a blockade on tankers navigating this narrow corridor, only about 10% of the typical oil cargoes are currently able to pass through.

In a client advisory released on Friday, the investment bank indicated that the level of disruption faced now is dramatically greater than previous global supply crises.

"Based on updated data, developments, and the magnitude of the disruption, we project that oil prices could surpass $100 next week unless solutions are identified soon," stated the report.

Further, it noted, "It is now probable that oil prices, particularly for refined products, will surpass the peaks reached in 2008 and 2022 if the flow through the Strait of Hormuz remains curtailed throughout March."

Goldman Sachs' assessment underscores that the impact on global oil supply during the previous week was 17 times more severe than the highest production losses recorded in April 2022, which followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine, an event that had pushed crude prices up to approximately $110 a barrel.

The international oil benchmark had previously spiked above $120 in 2022 and neared $145 during the energy crisis of 2008, both situations having led to significant repercussions for the world's economy.

As of late last week, oil prices had begun an upward trajectory, crossing the $90 mark per barrel, reflecting the most substantial weekly gains since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic six years ago, including a notable single-day increase of $10 on Friday.

Weekend market trading via IG Group indicated potential further hikes, with U.S. crude expected to trade above $94 per barrel when global markets reopen, suggesting an imminent rise.

According to Clayton Seigle, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the market is beginning to acclimatize to the idea that the current supply shock may be long lasting.

He commented, "The reprieve offered by the market toward the Trump administration came to an end last week. A deficit of 20 million barrels per day is affecting the global oil market balance with no sign of an impending recovery. Contrary to initial beliefs, it has become evident that the demand for drastic production increases from President Trump is not a mere bluff."

So far this year, oil prices have surged over 50%, increasing from approximately $60 per barrel at the start of 2026. The upward trend had been gradual during January and February but escalated sharply following the U.S.-Israeli action against Iran just over a week ago.