Is Badaru Departing from APC as He Skips Congresses and Engages with Opposition Figures?

As Nigeria steadily moves towards the general elections scheduled for 2027, political maneuvering is becoming increasingly prominent throughout the country. In Jigawa State, the focus is on former governor and ex-Minister of Defence, Muhammed Badaru Abubakar.

Relations between Badaru and President Bola Tinubu's administration had been favorable until the United States took a keen interest in Nigeria's political landscape, purportedly to address issues of religious genocide. Following claims by former President Donald Trump that Nigeria was a 'Country of Particular Concern,' diplomatic dialogues took place, resulting in an adjustment in military leadership, which saw Christopher Musa succeed Badaru following his exit.

Lately, Badaru's political activities have sparked significant discussions among observers and party members. Despite his public denial of rumors regarding a defection from the APC to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), his recent meetings with influential opposition figures have reignited speculation about the political future in Jigawa.

While some analysts view these interactions as standard political networking typical in Northern Nigeria, others suggest they may indicate shifting allegiances that could alter the region's political scene.

The current climate of speculation stems from various factors, including public engagements and support from Badaru’s followers. Interest heightened when a loyalist to Badaru, Zakari Kafin-Hausa, shared footage of a cleric criticizing President Tinubu's policies, alleging favoritism towards Southern Nigeria despite strong support from Northern voters during the 2023 elections.

Although this post did not directly name Badaru, political analysts took it as a sign of dissatisfaction among certain Northern political figures. The situation was exacerbated by two meetings Badaru held with Mustapha Lamido, the PDP's gubernatorial candidate and son of prominent politician Sule Lamido, which occurred within just a week. It’s noteworthy that Lamido himself is rumored to be contemplating a switch from the PDP to the ADC.

Additionally, Badaru has been spotted with Ubale Shitu, a former senator associated with the ADC, and former rival Sule Lamido, in what some label a reconciliatory gesture.

However, Badaru's notable absence at the recent APC state congress has intensified speculation about his potential departure from the party that facilitated his rise to prominence. The congress saw attendance from prominent figures, including Governor Umar Namadi and other high-ranking APC members.

Ahmad Garba was elected as the new state chairman at this congress, where his inaugural speech hinted at an unwelcoming stance towards "dual loyalty." Many interpreted this comment as a veiled warning directed at Badaru, who supposedly maintains ties with both the APC and ADC.

The surprising meeting with Sule Lamido, once a rival, has elicited varied opinions among observers. History reflects that Lamido faced legal trouble during Badaru's governorship, a situation that escalated their rivalry. Yet, in what some consider a very political gesture, Badaru visited Lamido, a move his supporters argue should not be politicized.

On local radio, Kafin-Hausa acknowledged that while opposition figures had visited Badaru, these encounters were framed as social gatherings related to Ramadan, aiming to foster unity.

Furthermore, while the political landscape seems calm, underlying tensions exist. Namadi's governance style has focused on institutional reforms rather than the expected political patronage, leading to dissatisfaction among some party loyalists who feel overlooked.

With the 2027 elections approaching, there are worries about the shifts in political alliances. Commentator Muhammad Haruna remarked on Badaru's cautious political approach and suggested that it’s too early to draw conclusions about his plans. He emphasized that political stability in Jigawa could influence voter behavior significantly.

As political chess pieces move into place, one question remains: is Badaru’s outreach a mere attempt at political networking, or are we witnessing the early stages of a political realignment in Jigawa? The road to the 2027 election is already being paved, and in Jigawa, the political landscape is slowly evolving.

In reaction to the escalating concerns regarding Badaru's potential defection from the APC, the Jigawa State Government has downplayed the significance of his recent political engagements. Hamisu Mohammed Gumel, the Chief Press Secretary to the Governor, stated that Badaru's absence from the last party congress and interactions with opposition figures are not a threat to the APC's strength at the state or national levels.

Gumel acknowledged that while Badaru’s activities have drawn attention, they should not provoke worry among party supporters, implying that any exit from the APC would not affect the party's influence or stability.

The spokesman asserted that many individuals currently engaged with Badaru have lost their political significance in the state, thus arguing that no substantial opposition exists to challenge the APC effectively.

In his closing remarks, Gumel noted Badaru’s lack of success in recent elections as indicative of his current political standing, ultimately suggesting that the decision to remain with APC rests solely with the former minister, whose actions could lead to further complications for his political prospects.