Key Takeaways from the FCT Area Council Elections That Could Influence 2027 Elections

The Area Council elections held on Saturday in Nigeria’s Federal Capital Territory (FCT) transcended a mere local electoral process that elected chairpersons and councillors. It unveiled significant insights into potential dynamics for the 2027 general elections, especially relating to Abuja's political scene.

Voting commenced early at numerous polling stations across the six area councils: Abaji, Bwari, Gwagwalada, Kwali, Kuje, and the Abuja Municipal Area Council (AMAC). The All Progressives Congress (APC) emerged victorious in five out of the six councils. Each of the five councils has 10 wards, while AMAC has 12 wards.

Out of 1,680,315 registered voters in the FCT, 1,587,025 obtained their Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) and were eligible to cast ballots. Voting took place across 2,822 polling units, utilizing 4,345 Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) machines provided by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

A total of 637 candidates representing 17 political parties contested for 68 positions — six chairpersons and 62 councillor positions. While winners have been announced, only one candidate, Moses Paul of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) in AMAC, has contested the results, claiming irregularities, particularly concerning the alleged reallocation of voters from their original polling units without notice.

INEC has acknowledged the realignment of voters but stated it was necessary to alleviate crowding in polling units with over 1,250 registered voters.

Wilfred Ifogah, acting director of Voter Education and Publicity at INEC, noted that affected voters received notifications via text messages and emails detailing their new polling locations between February 18 and 21.

Despite the disputes surrounding the election, it offers essential lessons that could serve as a model for the conduct of the 2027 presidential and National Assembly elections in Abuja. Below are eight critical insights:

1\. APC Remains Dominant: The APC’s success in five councils reinforces its hold over grassroots politics in Abuja. The party effectively used incumbency, particularly in AMAC and Abaji, where outgoing chairpersons sought re-election. Control over local political structures played a key role in this advantage.

2\. PDP’s Resilience Despite Fragmentation: The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), amid internal disputes, demonstrated its continued relevance. In Gwagwalada, its candidate, Mohammed Kasim, won with 22,165 votes against APC’s Yahaya Shehu, who garnered 17,788 votes.

3\. Labour Party's Identity Crisis: The Labour Party’s presence in the elections showed weaknesses after losing its strong momentum from the 2023 elections, largely driven by Peter Obi, who has now joined ADC. The party’s absence in this election reflects a deeper organisational crisis due to leadership disputes.

4\. ADC Needs to Build Strength: Although ADC participated in the election, it failed to establish significant clout in most councils. It must enhance its grassroots presence and resolve organisational challenges to be competitive.

5\. Low Voter Turnout Issues: The election reflected Nigeria's troubling low voter turnout trend, with only a 14% participation rate, up from 9.4% in 2022. Factors like voter fatigue and economic hardship seem influential in this lack of engagement.

6\. Inaccessibility for Persons With Disabilities: Reports indicated limited participation of Persons With Disabilities (PWDs) due to inaccessible polling locations and inadequate support materials, highlighting the need for systemic improvements in electoral inclusion.

7\. Vote Buying as a Persistent Challenge: Vote buying was noted in the election, leading to the arrest of 20 individuals for various electoral offenses. The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) recorded transactions amounting to over N17 million in alleged vote buying.

8\. Positive Performance of BVAS: One positive outcome noted was the efficient operation of the BVAS, as most polling units experienced smooth accreditation processes, which reduced instances of multiple voting. Nonetheless, there are calls for continuous improvements in logistics and backup systems to further bolster electoral integrity.

These elections underscore that if Abuja is a preview for the 2027 elections, stakeholders must learn crucial lessons for advancing democratic practices, ensuring inclusivity, and enabling competitive political structures.