The price of Nigeria's Bonny Light crude oil has risen to $80 per barrel, up from $70, marking a notable increase that has not been observed since July 2025.
This escalation is attributed to coordinated military actions against Iran by the United States and Israel, which have unsettled global energy markets and caused disruptions in crude oil supplies from the Middle East.
Other key crude oil benchmarks have also seen significant increases. Brent Crude has jumped to $79.08 per barrel, up from $72.87, while Murban Crude has risen to $81.05 from $74.24. In the United States, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has surged to $72.24 per barrel from $62.
Oil prices began to increase notably over the weekend as there were reports indicating that Iran's crude oil production, estimated at around three million barrels per day and primarily exported to China and other Asian nations, has been impacted by the ongoing conflict.
As the situation escalated, traders incorporated the risks of a wider supply shock into pricing, leading to increases in prices across major crude oil benchmarks.
According to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Iran possesses extensive hydrocarbon reserves along with substantial natural gas deposits and important minerals such as copper, iron ore, zinc, and sulphur.
At the current price of $80 per barrel, Bonny Light is trading at a premium of $15.15 over Nigeria’s 2026 budget target, which is set at $64.85 per barrel.
The fiscal plan for 2026 is premised on crude production taking place at 1.84 million barrels per day with an exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the dollar. If oil prices remain elevated, this could enhance government revenues provided that production targets are met.
Nevertheless, analysts are warning that ongoing instability in the Middle East could lead to elevated global petroleum product prices, which might result in increased prices at Nigerian fuel stations in the upcoming weeks.
In related developments, the OPEC+ coalition agreed to boost oil output following a virtual conference held on March 1, 2026.
The alliance, consisting of eight nations—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—have decided to begin phasing out 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts first instituted in April 2023.
OPEC+ announced that a production adjustment of 206,000 barrels per day would commence in April 2026, citing steady global economic conditions and relatively low oil inventories as the reasoning behind this decision.
The group emphasized that the return of the 1.65 million barrels per day will occur gradually and will be contingent on market circumstances, highlighting their flexibility to adjust production levels as required.
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