Political Violence Escalates Nationwide as 2027 Elections Approach

With the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) slated to announce the commencement of primary elections for political parties, Nigeria's political climate is already tense.

Correspondents across the country are reporting an upsurge in harassment of political rivals, thuggery, physical assaults, demolition of opponents' properties, and the defacement or destruction of campaign posters and billboards.

In Rivers State, suspected political thugs reportedly disrupted a meeting of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) Young Women Forum in Eleme Local Government Area. The group allegedly dispersed attendees and damaged canopies, sound equipment, and seating.

Organizers of the event were reportedly told the meeting was held without prior approval, despite INEC having not yet officially sanctioned political campaigning.

Former INEC director of voter education, Mr. Nick Dazang, has voiced concerns, suggesting that the recurring nature of violence indicates deliberate planning rather than isolated incidents. He noted that repeated occurrences move beyond coincidence to suggest intent.

Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, a former governor of Kano State and leader of the Kwankwasiyya movement, also expressed alarm over the escalating political thuggery in Kano. He warned that such activities pose a grave danger to peace and the democratic process.

Kwankwaso claimed that thugs are being brought into Kano from neighbouring Kaduna and Katsina states to perpetrate violence. He stated his awareness of plans to disrupt rallies and meetings and harm supporters, advising his followers to remain vigilant while maintaining peace.

Correspondents indicate that many states are experiencing elevated tensions as the campaign season nears, exacerbated by threats from political actors.

Sunday Adeyemo, known as Sunday Igboho, a Yoruba Nation activist, has been reported to issue warnings to opposition leaders Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, cautioning them against campaigning in the South-West for the 2027 presidential election. He allegedly stated in a video that anyone campaigning for Atiku or Obi in Yorubaland would face consequences.

Similarly, the governor of Edo State, Sen. Monday Okpebholo, previously warned presidential candidate Peter Obi against entering Edo State without his permission.

There was also a reported issue between Peter Obi and Benue State governor, Hyacinth Alia, concerning Obi's proposed visit to an Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camp.

Youths identifying with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in Bakassi LGA, Cross River State, have reportedly vowed to prevent the opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC) from holding public events in the area. A secretly filmed video showed them allegedly attacking ADC members at a venue intended for a new secretariat.

Incidents of politically motivated violence have become more pronounced within the year.

On August 30, 2025, suspected thugs allegedly disrupted the inauguration of a transition committee for a coalition of opposition parties under the ADC in Kaduna State, leading to attacks and property damage.

The committee comprised members from an APC faction, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Labour Party (LP), and the ADC.

Eyewitnesses reported that the inauguration in Kaduna devolved into violence as individuals armed with dangerous weapons disrupted the proceedings, although the event continued under a tense atmosphere.

Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, who was present, condemned the attack, describing it as a "dangerous descent into lawlessness."

Separately, on September 1, 2025, a convoy belonging to the ADC leader in Kebbi State and former Minister of Justice, Abubakar Malami, was reportedly attacked by suspected political thugs in Birnin Kebbi shortly after his return for a condolence visit. Witnesses claim approximately ten vehicles in his convoy were vandalized, and several supporters were injured.

Malami, who served as Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice from 2015 to 2023, stated the attack was politically motivated.

In February, violence during an APC ward congress in Idanre, Ondo State, reportedly resulted in at least two fatalities and several injuries, with a vehicle also set ablaze. The unrest disrupted the congress in some wards, with allegations of hoodlums attacking party members.

In Benue State, disruptions at church services, isolated attacks on political figures, and online threats between supporters of political parties have also been reported.

Residents expressed concerns that the current political tension could escalate into widespread violence if not addressed promptly. Pius Ejembi highlighted the disruption of a church service in Vandeikya Local Government Area during a thanksgiving service attended by Senator Emmanuel Udende as a worrying sign, where suspected youths allegedly caused panic and damaged property.

While accounts of the Vandeikya incident vary, the political motivations are considered clear. A PDP media consultant's vehicle was reportedly set on fire by individuals on motorcycles the previous week, and churches in areas like Naka and Konshisha have also faced disruptions.

In Bauchi State, the presence of armed youths accompanying politicians to gatherings and public events has not only persisted but intensified. It has been gathered that unemployed youth, known as Sara-suka thugs, and other miscreants are being recruited by political leaders across parties to intimidate rivals.

This situation has led many political officeholders, including elected officials in Bauchi, to avoid public functions such as weddings, naming ceremonies, and project commissioning.

Elected officials are reportedly attending public events with heavy security, often sending aides to represent them. Even state government functions are heavily guarded by police, security agencies, vigilantes, and hunters to protect officials from aggressive youth groups.

Former House of Representatives member Ibrahim Mohammed Baba was reportedly attacked and injured at the APC Secretariat by suspected thugs during the party's recent congress in the state.

Political violence also occurred in parts of Oyo State on March 7 amidst local government congresses organized by a faction of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) loyal to the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike. The state has two PDP factions, one aligned with Governor Seyi Makinde and the other with Wike.

The Wike-aligned faction's congresses reportedly turned violent, leading to injuries and the vandalism of properties, including houses and vehicles, in areas such as Ibadan North, Ido, Ibarapa Central, Akinyele, and Ogbomoso North.

The residence of former state governor, Barrister Hazim Gbolarumi, was allegedly attacked, with significant property damage reported.

Professor Abdulrahman Akinoso, chairman of the Wike-led PDP faction in Oyo, confirmed the incident, stating that over 25 vehicles were damaged and that individuals were being attacked at their homes.

Oyo State Police Command spokesperson Olayinka Ayanlade confirmed the events.

Residents in Rivers and Bayelsa States have expressed apprehension over early signs of violence as political activities increase. Rivers State is particularly viewed as a potential flashpoint due to ongoing power struggles between Governor Siminalayi Fubara, FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, and former Governor Rotimi Amaechi and their supporters.

Many individuals stated that if the current trend of violence and threats continues, they might refrain from voting on election day, citing a lack of personal safety.

In early March, Rotimi Amaechi's convoy was allegedly attacked by hoodlums while he was en route to a ward in Ikwerre LGA for an ADC e-registration exercise. The ADC secretariat in the ward was reportedly set ablaze the night before his arrival amidst gunfire.

Similarly, tension flared in Alesa community, Eleme Local Government Area, Rivers State, when a group identifying as Chief Security Officers disrupted an ADC event shortly before its commencement.

Reports indicate a comparable incident occurred days earlier in Igwuruta, Ikwerre Local Government Area, suggesting a pattern of targeted disruptions of ADC activities in the state.

The hoodlums, allegedly arriving with heavy weaponry, reportedly fired shots and riddled the gate of Amaechi's family home with bullets in an attempt to prevent his visit.

Dazang listed other concerning incidents, including the disruption of an ADC inauguration meeting in Kaduna in August 2025, the arson at the ADC Secretariat in Ado-Ekiti in October 2025, and the invasion of the ADC secretariat in Edo in February 2026.

He also recalled that INEC offices in Anambra State and surrounding areas were burned shortly before the 2022 Anambra State off-cycle governorship election.

Political intolerance leading to violence is not a new phenomenon in Nigeria. Historical accounts point to violence during the First Republic in the Western Region, leading to a state of emergency, and further mayhem during the Second Republic in states like Kano and Ondo.

Since the return to democracy in 1999, violence has been a feature of every election cycle.

Numerous individuals, NGOs, and international observers have raised concerns and sought measures to curb such violence.

A report on violence during the 2015 elections estimated 160 deaths from election clashes. A study on the 2019 elections documented 2,177 violent incidents across Nigeria. The 2023 elections reportedly saw voting disrupted by violence in over 20 states.

Bukola Idowu, executive director of Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI), noted in a report on the 2025 Anambra election that 122 pre-election violence incidents were recorded, with 91 being non-electoral. Of 130 fatalities during the pre-election period, 128 were attributed to non-electoral violence.

The National Peace Commission (NPC), chaired by former head of state General Abdulsalami Abubakar, was established to prevent election violence. For over a decade, the commission has facilitated dialogue, reduced political tension, issued early warnings, met with key figures, addressed misconduct allegations, discouraged negative campaigning, and intervened in local conflicts.

Tamuno Dike, a voter in Rivers State, expressed reluctance to participate in the next election unless adequate security measures are implemented, citing early signs of violence.

He stated that safety during elections appears contingent on affiliation with major parties like the APC or PDP, suggesting that voters with different affiliations might face challenges.

Political analysts in Rivers and Bayelsa states believe the trend towards a one-party system, potentially encouraged by the ruling party, could negatively impact Nigeria's electoral process.

Dr. Fyneface Dumnamene, a political analyst, suggested that politicians are promoting violence to demonstrate their control over state politics, particularly in Rivers State. He noted that this behaviour discourages opposition parties and can lead to voter apathy, limiting choices to candidates selected during primaries.

He emphasized the crucial role of the police and other security agencies in ensuring that all political parties can operate legally. He also called for INEC to guarantee a level playing field and for the President to publicly condemn violence.

David-West Benewarie David, a pro-democracy advocate, stressed the need for peaceful, free, and fair elections in 2027, urging INEC and security agencies to intensify efforts to curb pre-election violence, which he noted appears to target opposition parties.

Retired Department of State Services (DSS) senior officer Orgem Angulum warned against ignoring the current signs of political tension.

He identified underlying rivalries within major political parties, especially within the ruling APC in various states, as potential triggers for violence if left unaddressed.

Angulum asserted that early intervention is the most effective strategy for preventing electoral violence, pointing to visible indicators like political intolerance, factionalism, and the use of informal groups for dominance.

He warned that these issues could escalate beyond control if not managed promptly.

Angulum stressed the necessity for political parties, particularly the major ones, to resolve internal conflicts and foster dialogue among stakeholders.

He stated that the ruling and main opposition parties must address their internal issues, as electoral violence often stems from unresolved grievances. He called for concerted efforts to build consensus and reduce tensions.

Angulum also advocated for a collaborative approach involving security agencies, community leaders, and civil society organizations to develop a preventive framework for the upcoming elections.