The High Price of Institutional Integrity in African Football

The recent events surrounding the Africa Cup of Nations (AfCON), including Senegal's on-field protest and the Confederation of African Football's (CAF) decision to later strip them of their title, raise significant questions that extend beyond the sport itself in Africa.

While seemingly a disciplinary issue concerning rule adherence and competition fairness, this incident, when viewed through the lens of broader governance, political interference, and institutional credibility concerns, exposes fundamental structural challenges that resonate with wider political and economic realities across the continent.

Football has evolved into a major global industry with substantial political and economic implications, and in Africa, it serves as a tool for soft power and continental unity. Numerous former players have entered politics, with George Weah's presidency in Liberia being a prominent example.

Tournaments like AfCON, alongside events such as the UEFA European Championship and Copa América, are expected to foster athletic excellence while also enhancing continental commercial appeal, brand value, institutional legitimacy, governance standards, and cultural cohesion.

However, unlike its global counterparts, African football continues to contend with a persistent credibility deficit.

The Senegal incident, particularly when examined alongside widespread perceptions of favouritism, including alleged preferential treatment towards Morocco during the tournament and CAF's subsequent ruling, reinforces a concerning pattern: that the outcomes in African football might not solely be determined by events on the field.

While such suspicions are not exclusive to African football, their persistence and near-normalisation within CAF-organised competitions indicate significant institutional weaknesses. From a political economy perspective, it is not just the occurrence of controversy but its regularity and the lack of robust resolution mechanisms that erode trust, undermine legitimacy, and ultimately devalue institutional systems as globally recognised products.

Whether these perceptions are entirely accurate is almost secondary. In political economy, perception itself becomes an institutional factor. Once stakeholders – including players, investors, fans, and international partners – begin to doubt the neutrality and consistency of governance, the entire system's value diminishes.

Allowing a match to conclude despite awareness of a potential regulatory breach, and only applying relevant regulations months after the outcome was decided, suggests a weak governance framework. Such retrospective enforcement undermines procedural certainty and raises serious questions about regulatory consistency. Essentially, it is like stating after a penalty kick that it should have been a throw-in – an outcome that is not only illogical procedurally but also damages confidence in the game's integrity.

Consequently, the AfCON's status as a reliable benchmark in the global football assessment has increasingly come under scrutiny. In 2025, Jamie Carragher's assertion that Mohamed Salah's omission from Ballon d'Or contention was partly due to the tournament's limited global impact, though controversial, reflects an underlying perceptual issue. Incidents of inconsistent governance, like this recent CAF decision, risk validating such claims, not necessarily due to their inherent truth, but because institutional frailties make them increasingly plausible.

One of the most evident repercussions of weak governance is its impact on player commitment and talent retention.

African footballers at the highest international levels frequently face decisions regarding dual nationality. Increasingly, many choose to represent European nations, even with marginal ties, rather than committing long-term to African countries. This choice is influenced not just by financial rewards or exposure, but also by institutional trust. When players perceive African football governance as unpredictable, politicised, or administratively flawed, the rational decision shifts. The symbolic comparison becomes clear: 'A single cap for England may carry more long-term value than a hundred caps for an African nation'.

This situation is not a reflection of talent disparity but of institutional imbalance. Sporadic governance controversies reinforce these perceptions, ultimately diminishing both the quality of participation and the global value of African football. The consequences extend beyond national teams and tournaments. Football fuels a broader sports industrial complex, encompassing broadcasting rights, sponsorship deals, infrastructure development, academies, merchandise, and tourism. These sectors are heavily reliant on credible and predictable governance structures.

Where governance is weak, investors often demand higher risk premiums or cease investing; sponsorship values decrease; broadcasting contracts falter; domestic leagues struggle to expand; and youth development systems stagnate. These challenges are prevalent across the continent, continuously hindering the sport's growth. More worryingly, Africa's historical success in youth tournaments, an area where it once excelled, is gradually eroding, indicating the cumulative effects of governance deficiencies.

In contrast, regions with stronger institutional credibility, such as Europe, have transformed football into a multi-billion-dollar industry deeply integrated with their economies. Africa, despite its vast talent pool and enthusiastic market, continues to underperform, not due to a lack of potential, but because of institutional limitations.

What is unfolding in African football mirrors a broader developmental trend observed in various sectors across the continent. Similar to trade and investment, outcomes are not solely determined by participation but by the quality of institutional mediation.

In football:

* The 'external regime' refers to global football integration.

* The 'domestic mediation' involves CAF and national football governance.

Where mediation is weak, integration fosters dependency – African talent supports global leagues while domestic systems remain underdeveloped.

Where mediation is robust, integration can aid domestic capability building and industrial advancement. In such environments, the quality of the game improves, commercial value increases, and investment flows into both core sports infrastructure and related sectors like hospitality and logistics. Investment in these ancillary sectors not only strengthens the football ecosystem but also enhances the overall economic competitiveness of the continent, making it more attractive for capital investment in non-sport sectors and ultimately improving living standards.

This suggests that continental bodies like the African Union Commission and the African Continental Free Trade Area Secretariat can strategically leverage sport, particularly football, not just as entertainment but as a means to mobilise industrial capital and drive structural transformation continent- wide.

If African football is to reach its full economic and symbolic potential, governance reform must shift from mere discussion to tangible action.

Key areas for improvement include:

* Transparent and consistent application of rules;

* Ensuring institutional independence from political interference;

* Strengthening mechanisms for dispute resolution;

* Professionalising football administration;

* Establishing clear alignment between continental and national governance frameworks.

Without these measures, the Africa Cup of Nations risks remaining a tournament with abundant talent but limited global stature.

The Senegal incident is more than just the loss of a title or the enforcement of a rule. It serves as an indicator highlighting the consequences of institutional fragility within a highly visible and interconnected global sector.

African football is at a critical juncture. It must either continue operating with disputed legitimacy or commit to the challenging but essential reforms needed to build credibility, attract investment, and retain its talent.

Ultimately, the trajectory of African football will be shaped not by what occurs on the field, but by the robustness of the institutions governing it.

Dipo Baruwa is an analyst focusing on business climate development.