The Illusion of Political Strategy Amidst Defections and Discontent

Citizens are clearly discontented with the current administration as their living conditions continue to decline due to ineffective governmental policies. Access to basic essentials such as clean water is limited, electricity supply is erratic, and communities are facing growing insecurity. Additionally, job opportunities are dwindling, and the skyrocketing cost of food makes it increasingly unaffordable for many.

In simple terms, people are grappling with a cost of living crisis, which they rightfully attribute to the government's actions. However, the administration appears primarily focused on fortifying its chances for re-election instead of addressing these pressing issues. Supporters of the so-called master strategist are convinced that he possesses a political roadmap capable of securing victory in the upcoming 2027 elections.

When I hear his followers touting his political expertise and labeling him a “master strategist”, it evokes memories of Nkem Owoh’s humorous song, “I Go Chop Your Dollar.” As the saying goes, Nigerians indeed have a penchant for ‘awoof’ – free things – considering it as their rightful share of resources.

Some of the song's lyrics include: “Poverty no good at all, no; Na ’im make I join this business; If anybody fall mugu; Ha! My brother, I go chop ’am...”

Recently, there has been a significant wave of defections, with several governors and lawmakers transitioning to his party. This week, another governor from the North joined the ranks, raising the total to 29 out of 36 governors supporting him. While this may seem favorable in theory, the reality is that elections are decided at the grassroots level.

Allegations of misconduct are surfacing as reasons behind these defections. For instance, in Delta State, it has been suggested that the EFCC's pressure was a decisive factor for a former governor; claims state that pending prosecutions were dropped once current and former governors shifted allegiance. Should this prove accurate, these politicians may view themselves as politically compromised, complying with the government for now but potentially retaliating later in the 2027 elections.

Additionally, allegations of substantial financial inducements, purportedly amounting to billions of naira, have also emerged. Sensible politicians understand this temptation well. The underlying desperation, especially prevalent in Northern and South Eastern regions, can largely be attributed to the belief that the master strategist’s political capabilities are limited. The defectors are simply aiming for easier access to federal resources, presenting a façade of electoral strength, while the true situation reflects otherwise.

My interpretation is that these defectors are merely following the principles illustrated in Nkem Owoh’s song: “Master strategist, I go chop your dollar. Politics is just a game. You be the mugu, I be the master…”

The situation is not as straightforward as it seems. History has witnessed the downfall of sitting governors. Recent examples from states like Zamfara, Osun, and Adamawa remind us of how power can swiftly shift. There are instances where parties have lost strongholds to rival factions, evident in places such as Sokoto, Plateau, Kano, Abia, and Edo. Even Lagos has diverged from its traditional voting patterns. The defectors are acutely aware of these historical precedents, as is the master strategist himself.

Nonetheless, he finds himself with limited alternatives. He leverages federal authority as bait for politicians facing challenges. In this context, 'federal might' concerns financial resources and, allegedly, support from law enforcement, INEC, and legal institutions. In return, he seeks voter engagement. However, the electorate is frustrated, directing grievances towards governors, legislators, the national government, and overall national direction. The current ruling party's popularity has plummeted, particularly in underprivileged Northern and South Eastern areas.

There is a well-known saying: one cannot deceive everyone all the time. Despite wielding federal might, the master strategist grapples with national- level challenges.

Having 29 governors and a majority of legislators does not guarantee a secure path to triumph in the 2027 elections. Political actors prefer to keep this analysis hushed, as openly discussing it could seriously undermine their credibility. They are merely politicians and are not obligated to fulfill their end of prior agreements. Historically, the master strategist has discarded several figures who initially propelled him to prominence. This reality drives politicians to cling to the false hope that manipulating the electoral results is within reach.

Regardless of the elections' outcomes, they now have financial security if efforts to sway results are unsuccessful, as they depart with their earnings intact. This pattern was evident back in 2015, showing history has a tendency to repeat itself.

Instead of solely relying on historical examples, it is wise to analyze the effectiveness of the master strategist’s current political maneuvers. Criticism has been directed at the National Assembly for allowing a shift from the National Anthem to the “on your mandate” chant. A cynical take could suggest that flattering the ‘mugu’ is a strategy to secure funding for constituency projects. This explains the reluctance displayed by the assembly in endorsing unfavorable tax legislation until necessary amendments were incorporated to cater to their needs. The National Assembly’s firm stance on tax law adjustments currently reflects a robust challenge where personal interests diverge.

Recently, one of his ministers publicly cautioned the master strategist that opting to replace the Vice President with a non-Northern Muslim could threaten electoral success in 2027. This minister insisted that those pushing for a ticket reshuffle fail to grasp “the reality of people's sentiments” in the North. Such admonitions are typically reserved for leaders who lack strength or experience. Hence, I maintain that those dubbing him the master strategist are doing so disingenuously, exposing a significant fallacy.

Discussion can also continue around the notion that he is a transactional politician fervently trying to diminish opposition and suppress alternatives in pursuit of re-election. However, the departing governors and lawmakers are not oblivious to their actions. They expect him to effectively instruct INEC to manipulate election results, while well aware that he relies on them for voter mobilization to secure a win. This mutual manipulation can potentially lead to instability since any failure in expected votes or institutional cooperation can cause the master strategist's plans to unravel.