Thoughts on the Opposition Coalition's Viability

With the release of the election timetable for 2027, although there are ongoing discussions about the dates for voting, it is crucial to assess the challenges faced by those opposing the ruling party.

There has been a proposal for all opposition parties to merge into a single coalition to effectively challenge the ruling party, signaling a shift towards a two-party system. However, it’s important to inform voters that realizing this ambitious plan will be considerably challenging.

Three critical issues persist. The ruling party is actively working to disrupt the coalition via legal proceedings and intimidation of disaffected politicians through state security agencies. Zoning remains another contentious factor. Additionally, individual ambitions appear to threaten the collective goal of unseating the ruling power. These challenges must be resolved for any meaningful progress.

As the election date draws nearer, the PDP finds itself without a unified candidate to back. The party is deeply divided, with the faction led by Wike, which the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) recognizes, openly supporting Tinubu's reelection. This creates significant hurdles for any proposed collaboration. Meanwhile, the Turaki faction expresses interest in aligning with the ADC but is held back, awaiting the results of their legal disputes. The irony is palpable; they seek validation from the very courts that upheld the Wike faction's legitimacy.

Moreover, the Wike faction is gearing up for a convention that will further complicate matters for the opposing faction.

Ultimately, the PDP's leadership chaos could spell trouble for its members aspiring to secure positions within the party. It is hard for candidates to express interest in running when the party’s stability is in question or when it appears aligned with the ruling APC. Prospective candidates may hesitate to pursue nominations under a faction that is not recognized by INEC. They are also unlikely to jeopardize their credibility by associating with a faction perceived as colluding with the current administration. The party’s uncertainty in fielding candidates, as evidenced by past events in Ekiti and Osun, further complicates the situation.

Regarding voter tendencies, the common voter may be eager for change, with a general disdain for the APC. However, underlying intelligence prevails; they are not easily swayed by empty promises. Should they endorse a party that aligns itself with Tinubu, those in favor of continuity would likely choose the incumbent over the perceived chaos of shifting alliances.

An ideal candidate to unify the opposition would have been Goodluck Jonathan, who has considerable acceptance across this polarized landscape. Yet, the instability within the PDP renders any fruitful collaboration unlikely, especially as the Wike faction has pledged its support for Tinubu’s campaign.

The ADC is also keen on forming alliances and coalitions. Similar to the PDP and LP, the ADC is currently inactive in fielding candidates for the Rivers by-election due to internal strife. Nevertheless, it appears stable in other states.

The ADC aims to consolidate the PDP, NNPP, LP, and dissatisfied APC politicians under a single coalition. As the PDP continues to struggle with uncertainty, the ADC seems to be emerging as the centerpiece of a unified opposition. However, its growth has plateaued for various reasons, including a stalled online registration system and ongoing internal disputes, which are more pressing than the struggles involving existing factions and pending court cases.

At the state level, the ADC still grapples with leadership issues, with many states having competing party chairmen. There are concerns that national stakeholders are collaborating with the ruling party, fostering distrust among supporters of various presidential aspirants.

A significant portion of the coalition consists of discontented APC members who were not granted the positions necessary to maintain their political influence. Initially enthusiastic about the ADC during its peak popularity, they have since been reluctant to formalize registration with the coalition, despite attending numerous public events that heightened the anxiety of the current administration.

At present, some disgruntled coalition members have rejoined the APC, recently announcing their return publicly. Others plan to flee the country after accepting diplomatic roles, allegedly due to coercion. In light of the situations surrounding Emefiele, Malami, and Sirika, one might speculate that they weighed their options and decided that returning to Aso Rock for leniency was a safer bet than facing legal battles or imprisonment.

Additionally, there are other coalition members hesitating to register with the ADC. Their typical explanation for this delay is a need for further consultation.

Kwankwaso's name frequently resurfaces in discussions, especially following recent allegations from the US Congress, elevating his profile in opposition circles. Despite this, he has made it clear that his political stance is transactional. He has referenced past dealings with the ruling party, signaling his intent to join the coalition but remains noncommittal. For him, this would involve negotiations to be either the Presidential or Vice- Presidential candidate.

The two prominent southern contenders for the coalition's presidential nomination, Obi and Amaechi, would likely support Kwankwaso's terms. Both have push for the ADC coalition to designate its ticket for the South. Such an arrangement could potentially jeopardize Atiku’s chances of securing the ADC nomination.

If Atiku fails to win the ticket, disenchantment may spread within the Northern bloc unless a strong candidate emerges. Figures like Tambuwal, Saraki, Kwankwaso, and Makarfi would likely galvanize northern voters. The North may prefer to maintain Tinubu in power for an additional term rather than risk an uncertain eight years with an unknown southern candidate.

Obi, who has pledged to run for President in 2027, could also face apathy from his followers if sidelined from the ticket. However, this sentiment might shift should he be able to secure the Vice-Presidential slot with Atiku or Kwankwaso, provided they are successful in obtaining the nomination. If not, he may have to part ways to pursue other opportunities if another Southern candidate is awarded the ticket. The faction of LP he leads, under the guidance of Senator Nenadi Usman, would facilitate his departure from the coalition when necessary. Additionally, it is worth noting that PDP members are also showing interest in him.

In light of the election timetable already laid out, a fresh strategy is essential to cultivate the unity among opposition factions that is sorely needed. Regarding the current disjointed coalition, the last individual leaving that space should ensure to turn off the lights behind them.