A faction of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) plans to hold a national convention in Abuja this weekend, in adherence to a court ruling that dismissed the executive led by Kabiru Turaki. This gathering is viewed as a potential resolution to the party's extended leadership issues.
The convention, which is organized by the faction under the chairmanship of Abdulrahman Mohammed and endorsed by Nyesom Wike, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, seeks legitimacy through a judicial decision.
Scheduled for two days, the convention will take place on Sunday and Monday, where new members of the National Working Committee (NWC) will be elected to replace the National Caretaker Committee led by Mohammed.
Earlier this month, the Court of Appeal had declared invalid the NWC led by Turaki, which had only been established in November during the Ibadan convention. The court further instructed the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) not to acknowledge Turaki's committee.
The removal of Turaki’s executive has created a gap that necessitates a convention for fresh leadership to align with the 2026 Electoral Act.
While the convention ostensibly aims to foster unity, there exists a risk that it may lead to further instability.
Political parties' effectiveness is not solely based on legal mandates; a substantial consensus among key players, including governors and board members, is crucial for stability.
Currently, such consensus is evidently absent. Governors Seyi Makinde and Bala Mohammed are not part of the faction organizing the convention, yet Wike insists that the proceedings will continue, irrespective of reconciliation efforts.
Just hours before the convention, significant engagement between the opposing factions appears to be lacking, despite numerous calls from party leaders.
Ini Ememobong, representing the Turaki faction, stated that they would boycott the event, branding it unconstitutional.
"We will not be attending the convention as it does not comply with our party's constitution," he commented.
However, Ememobong expressed hope for successful reconciliation discussions moving forward.
Recently, former Senate President Bukola Saraki urged both factions to cease legal action and focus on internal reconciliation, cautioning that continued court wars might disrupt preparations for the 2027 elections.
Unfortunately, this advice seems to have gone largely unacknowledged. Despite their openness to dialogue, Turaki’s faction is seeking redress at the Supreme Court regarding their ouster, signifying that the contest for control over party structures remains unresolved.
Looking ahead to the convention outcomes, two possible scenarios emerge.
In an ideal situation, a leadership elected at the convention could unify the party and bridge existing divides, necessitating compromise and prioritization of party unity over factional interests.
Conversely, the more probable outcome points towards further fragmentation. Should Turaki’s faction reject the convention's results and continue legal challenges, the PDP, which once dominated Nigeria's political landscape, may find itself split into competing factions with increasingly entrenched distrust.
Such divisions could plunge the party into a profound institutional crisis, jeopardizing its ability to correctly nominate candidates for the upcoming 2027 elections.
The PDP, now 28 years in existence, has faced similar challenges before. In 2013, a group of governors and party leaders broke away to create the “New PDP” (nPDP), leading to a dual power structure within the party. This division severely weakened the PDP, resulting in many members defecting to the APC, which contributed to the significant loss in the 2015 presidential election.
The lesson from this history is poignant: while conventions can resolve disputes, they can similarly instigate deeper rifts.
Wike retains significant sway among former governors and specific state party frameworks. As the FCT Minister operating within the APC government, he has access to considerable financial and organizational assets, beneficial for rallying delegates and facilitating the convention.
His influence extends to some levels of the NWC, but it doesn’t encompass all areas of the party’s governance. Importantly, he lacks the support of the party's remaining governors, which undermines his claims to overarching legitimacy.
Meanwhile, the Turaki faction possesses different types of leverage. Through an appeal to the Supreme Court, they can challenge or seek to nullify the convention's results. They argue that the conference lacks proper procedure and is exclusionary, a stance that might influence its acceptance within the party and by INEC.
Additionally, ongoing litigation introduces uncertainty, potentially hindering vital processes such as candidate nominations.
The stakes in this political tussle extend well beyond mere party governance. As the principal opposition party and a former ruling entity, the PDP's capability to present a credible alternative to the current ruling party is heavily reliant on its internal unity.
Failure to achieve reconciliation could weaken its electoral leverage and diminish public confidence, creating a vacuum for rival parties or new coalitions to fill the gap.
Thus, the Abuja convention becomes a critical juncture, not solely for leadership choices but as a litmus test for the party's viability as a national power.
Despite its adherence to legal obligations, the political success of the convention will be measured by its broader acceptance. Without wide-ranging approval, the gathering risks exacerbating the PDP crisis rather than resolving it, potentially thrusting the party into a full-blown struggle for its very identity.
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