2027: The Race to Succeed Governor Zulum

With just under ten months remaining until the 2027 general elections, Borno's political landscape is heating up, marked by growing uncertainties among different interest groups.

A multitude of political scenarios regarding who will take over from Prof. Babagana Umara Zulum as his tenure draws to a close are becoming a central topic of discussion.

Although there have been no official declarations from any candidates, nor endorsements from political parties, there remains a lively dialogue in political circles about potential candidates.

Historically, since the inception of the Fourth Republic, politicians from Borno within the APP, transitioning to the ANPP, and now the APC, have been known to keep their ambitions closely guarded, with the incumbent governor acting as the ultimate decider on the ticket.

Nevertheless, last month at an APC stakeholders’ meeting in Maiduguri, Governor Zulum dismissed rumors suggesting he has an heir apparent.

“I do not have a candidate for any position, nor do I know who will succeed me. I leave the decision of leadership to Almighty Allah, reflecting the democratic wishes of our party members and the people of Borno State,” Zulum stated.

The governor's remarks elicited mixed reactions; while some interpreted it as an opening for any interested APC member to compete for the party’s nomination, others conjectured that the governor is mindful of the presence of a vice president from Borno, Senator Kashim Shettima, who inherently has a vested interest in the future governorship.

The essential question among analysts and party members is whether the traditional succession patterns established by previous governors will persist this time.

There are whispers that a brother of the governor, Abubakar Umara Zulum, along with former Governor Sheriff, are allegedly bolstering the governor's covert strategies in selecting a successor.

However, political experts assert that Shettima, due to his current position, should have considerable influence in determining who follows Zulum, especially considering his pivotal role in Zulum's ascension to the governorship in 2019.

Amid the public declarations, reliable sources have told the Weekend Trust about an underlying struggle within the party, signifying the governor's intentions to elevate the Commissioner of Education, Engr. Lawan Abba Wakilbe, as his successor, alongside a deputy from southern Borno.

Should this prevail, insiders suggest that Zulum may thwart the plans of the vice president and various stakeholders aiming for Senator Abubakar Kyari or Senator Kaka Shehu Lawan SAN to ascend as the next governor.

Reflecting on past political history, Weekend Trust recalls that in 1999, Senator Ali Modu Sheriff initiated a succession paradigm that first brought Governor Mala Kachalla to power.

Sheriff's influence became increasingly clear when he single-handedly denied Kachalla a second term, which led to Sheriff becoming the governor himself in 2003.

Following his two terms, Sheriff backed the current vice president, Shettima, to take his place, especially after an incident led to the death of his preferred candidate, Modu Fannami Gubio.

After serving eight years, Shettima appeared neutral in the succession race in 2019, allowing 21 candidates to pursue nomination forms.

However, with the endorsement of various notable groups, Shettima eventually supported Zulum, recognizing him as a courageous individual imbued with knowledge of the state's administrative framework.

At present, speculation suggests a new scenario will transpire within the APC as it approaches the selection of its gubernatorial candidate, with names like Senators Kyari and Kaka Shehu frequently circulating among potential successors.

Additional notable figures include Hon. Ali Bukar Dalori, the Deputy National Chairman of the APC; Senator Mohammed Tahir Monguno; Senator Baba Kaka Garbai; Engr. Adam Bababe; and Alhaji Kyari Dikwa.

Analyzing the strengths and challenges faced by these aspirants reveals that Ali Bukar Dalori, being a seasoned politician and former APC state chairman, is well-regarded as a grassroots leader with an extensive network.

Despite his experience, some believe his bureaucratic exposure might hinder his chances in a more politically charged environment.

Senator Kaka Shehu Lawan, another key candidate, has previously served as the Attorney General and has solid ties with both Shettima and the youth, positioning him favorably for a primary election.

Also in consideration is Baba Kaka Bashir Garbai, who has served in various capacities, including as Senator.

Senator Tahir Monguno’s long-standing experience in governance could also make him a strong candidate.

Senator Abubakar Kyari, currently the Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, is often mentioned as a likely successor, having previously served in the Senate and as a key political figure in Borno.

Kyari, a close ally of the vice president, is seen as possessing the necessary credentials to lead, although concerns regarding his bureaucratic approach may arise.

Conversely, Alhaji Kyari Dikwa, known for his philanthropic work, is popular but still viewed as politically inexperienced, complicating his candidacy.

Meanwhile, Dr. Usman Mohammed Shettima is emerging as a quieter player in the race, being linked to both the vice president and Governor Zulum but face similar skepticism due to his lack of experience.

Engr. Bukar Adam Bababe, known for his dedication to reform in his current role, remains less recognized in broader political discussions, potentially affecting his prospects.

Lastly, Mele Kyari, the past Group Managing Director of NNPC, is discussed as a consensus candidate, despite being marked as politically inexperienced, which may complicate his bid for the governorship.