2027: Tinubu and the Igbo, By Majeed Dahiru

With the 2027 presidential elections on the horizon, the All Progressives Congress (APC) seems intent on broadening its influence into regions of Nigeria that have historically resisted its agenda. Following successful efforts in the South South and substantial portions of the Middle Belt, the South East is at a pivotal point, poised for a political transformation from its traditional loyalty to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) towards the APC.

Since the Fourth Republic commenced in 1999, the South East region, which is the ancestral home of the Igbo people—one of three significant ethnic groups in Nigeria—has predominantly supported the PDP. The bond between the Ndigbo and the PDP has been so strong that they are often associated with the party as if linked at birth. Notably, even when a prominent Igbo figure and co- founder of the PDP, Alex Ekwueme, lost the presidential nomination to Olusegun Obasanjo, a Yoruba candidate, the Igbo electorate still largely favored the PDP during the 1999 presidential elections. Furthermore, despite their fervent hope for an Igbo president, the South East, in the 2007 election, cast their votes for the PDP's northerner candidate, Umar Musa Yar'Adua, rather than fellow Igbo contestant Odumegwu Ojukwu, under the belief that it was the North's turn following Obasanjo's eight-year presidency and as per the party’s zoning agreement.

In line with the agreed principle of rotational power-sharing that existed even for those who were not direct beneficiaries, the PDP’s then-chairman, Vincent Ogbuluafor—also of Igbo descent—proclaimed that the presidency must remain in the North following the death of Yar'Adua, urging all southerners, including incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, to withdraw from the race. Ogbuluafor's commitment to this zoning principle came at a high cost as he was ousted from his position and faced legal troubles, all due to a backlash against his support for Northern interests.

Subsequently, Ekwesilieze Nwodo, Ogbuluafor's successor and fellow Igbo, aligned himself with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the Northern consensus candidate against President Jonathan. Following accusations of undermining party principles, Nwodo was also removed from chairmanship, leading to the appointment of a northerner, Bello Mohammed Haliru, who then oversaw the primary election that favored Jonathan, a southerner despite the party's Northern inclination. This marked a turning point for the PDP, but the Ndigbo continued to support the PDP in the 2011 elections.

However, Ndigbo's contributions to the PDP were yet to reach their maximal potential until the party's downfall in 2015. Recognizing Muhammadu Buhari's failings—such as his divisive nature and bias—Ndigbo staunchly opposed the APC in both the 2015 and 2019 elections, reaffirming their loyalty to the PDP. Their decision to oppose Buhari a second time, even in favor of Abubakar, who is of Northern Fulani heritage, reinforced that their rejection of Buhari was based on personal characteristics rather than regional or religious affiliations.

After over two decades of unwavering support, expectations were high for the PDP to grant presidential candidacy to the South East in the 2023 elections. However, the Northern faction of the party, led by Abubakar, backtracked on this commitment. This betrayal of trust came as a shock, as the same Northern leaders had previously enjoyed solid support from the Ndigbo.

As I previously warned, the PDP deviated from the zoning principles leading into the 2023 presidential contest—a move that placed the party at odds with the sentiments of Ndigbo. I highlighted the necessity for the PDP to select a Southern candidate to avoid disaster during the elections. Ignoring this guidance, Abubakar lost in both Northern and Southern regions to Southern candidates, including APC's Bola Ahmed Tinubu, thereby sealing the PDP's diminishing relevance in southern Nigeria.

This shift illustrates the emergence of a new alignment among various groups and interests in Nigeria. Notably, the recent endorsement of President Tinubu by influential South East leaders exemplifies this strategic transformation. The gathering of APC chieftains in Enugu saw an impressive turnout, collectively backing Tinubu for re-election, which Governor Peter Mbah described as a significant and pragmatic shift.

Thus, the once solidly PDP-supporting Ndigbo appear to be embracing the APC under Tinubu’s outreach and reconciliatory approach, setting the stage for a pivotal political shift in the coming years.