ANALYSIS: Steps for the AU to Address the Somaliland Dispute

The recognition of Somaliland by Israel in December 2025 has sent ripples of political and diplomatic turmoil throughout the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. As the region grapples with heightened tensions in the midst of shifting global power dynamics, the role of the African Union (AU) in managing the aftermath will be pivotal.

Somalia has denounced Israel’s recognition as an attack on its territorial sovereignty. Many regional and international organizations—including the AU, UN, European Union, Arab League, and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development—condemned this action, pointing out violations of international law, the AU's Constitutive Act, and the UN Charter.

Countries that historically oppose Somaliland’s push for independence, such as Djibouti, Egypt, Sudan, South Sudan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, responded similarly to Israel’s recognition. Meanwhile, others have opted for a 'wait and see' approach.

For the AU, any unilateral assertion of sovereignty poses a challenge. The organization's Peace and Security Council has vocally condemned Israel’s recognition, maintaining that no entity holds the right to alter the territorial framework of an AU member state. Nevertheless, such firm declarations have halted discussions rather than fostering a consensus.

The struggle for international recognition by Somaliland symbolizes various facets of post-colonial statehood in Africa and raises critical questions regarding the criteria for sovereignty, along with having legal, political, and regional ramifications.

Somaliland successfully achieved independence from British control on June 26, 1960. After Somalia gained independence from Italian administration on July 1, 1960, the Republic of Somalia was established, merging the two territories. However, following a civil conflict in 1969 and the breakdown of the Somali government, Somaliland declared its independence in 1991.

From a legal standpoint, the AU often invokes commitments made by its predecessor, the Organisation of African Unity, regarding the inviolability of borders established during the colonial era to prevent further conflict between newly formed states. This principle, first articulated in 1964 in Cairo, aims to avert a proliferation of irredentist ambitions. The Cairo Declaration has consequently become a fundamental part of the AU’s normative foundation.

Proponents of Somaliland’s independence argue that the same principle applies to its quest for sovereignty, noting that their independence aligns with the boundaries of the former British Somaliland. They assert that the creation of a union with Somalia was a voluntary decision, and therefore, Somaliland has the right to revoke that choice.

Advocates of independence also cite the stability and regular electoral transitions experienced in Somaliland as further evidence supporting their case.

Instead of framing its position around legal arguments, the AU could benefit from fostering a political discourse based on the respect for its member states' territorial integrity. This could facilitate political resolutions to internal disputes, while avoiding precedents that could have sweeping effects in the Horn of Africa—where escalation to independence has previously resulted in the emergence of new states.

Eritrea and South Sudan succeeded in breaking away from Ethiopia and Sudan in 1993 and 2011, respectively, yet both nations grapple with substantial post- independence challenges marked by governmental oppression and serious internal strife, which are detrimental to Somaliland's pursuit of independence.

Newly formed states in the area frequently inherit the same issues as preexisting ones. Their foundational structures were compromised long before the call for independence emerged. Hence, new states often fail to achieve their intended goals due to a variety of factors, including the very act of separation.

Israel’s recognition of Somaliland has unexpectedly united various regional stakeholders and AU member countries in opposition to Somaliland’s ambitions. This reaction is primarily rooted in the premise that the actions of an external actor threaten a vital AU principle: the respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity.

For the AU, the Somaliland situation encapsulates a formidable difficulty: while it has reiterated a normative principle regarding the crisis, it lacks the practical measures necessary for enforcement. As the AU reviews its peace and security framework, member states must propose creative methods to empower the AU Commission to uphold its guiding principles.

The Somaliland issue also serves as a reminder that despite the AU's presence in Somalia since 2007, it has allowed this matter to linger without effectively addressing it, making it susceptible to external influence.

For Somalia, Somaliland's drive for international endorsement, bolstered by substantial domestic support, directly challenges the pan-Somalism ideology—that all Somalis should unite under one nation given their shared identity, culture, and language.

The pursuit of this political concept has previously incited conflicts within East Africa. Over time, Somalia has gradually stepped away from its aspirations to unify Somali territories spread across Kenya, Ethiopia, and Djibouti.

In this scenario, Somaliland's persistent secessionist ambitions not only threaten Somalia's viability within its existing borders but also interrogate the essence of pan-Somalism, an ideology built on debated premises.

This disintegration of pan-Somalism undermines a broader perception in discussions across Africa that instability primarily results from the artificially drawn colonial borders that created states with high ethnic diversity. The effective secession of Somaliland since 1991 counters the assumption that ethnic homogeneity guarantees stability.

Data from other African contexts indicates that ethnically homogeneous societies do not experience less violent conflict than those with diverse ethnic compositions. This evidence underscores that national cohesion arises not merely from population uniformity but also from state-building efforts, adept diversity management, and political legitimacy.

The AU Peace and Security Council’s declaration has effectively stymied discourse concerning Somaliland’s independence aspirations. Longstanding AU efforts in stabilizing Somalia ought to intertwine a political approach focused on dialogues with Somaliland. This strategy will enhance the AU’s credibility regarding the issue and deter further external entities from replicating Israel's actions.