APC Leader Predicts Intra-party Conflicts for Governor Yusuf

Engineer Bashir Ishaq Bashir stands as a notable leader in the APC within Kano State and previously ran as the Labour Party's governorship candidate in 2023. In this interview, he brings to light the competing interests, rivalries, and structural obstacles that Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf is likely to encounter as the 2027 general elections approach.

Kano’s political landscape seems poised for significant realignment. If Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf shifts allegiances, how does that fundamentally change the existing power dynamics in the state?

There isn't a straightforward answer to this question. It greatly depends on how one views the overall scope of the political climate in Kano. If you are aligned with the governor, you might see his executive authority as something he wants to utilize freely, without interference. He aims to wield the vast powers that his position entails.

Conversely, from the viewpoint of those backing Abba's defection to the APC, it could be perceived as a form of liberation. This move might give him greater latitude, particularly concerning government finances, contracts, and other key policy decisions.

Nevertheless, this perspective carries its own risks. Ultimately, one cannot completely sever the ties that link Abba to Kwankwaso, as he navigates waters fraught with political competition. Currently, the APC in Kano is under considerable internal strain. The rifts within the Kano chapter of the APC may pose a more pressing challenge than the external pressures the party faces as election day draws nearer.

He must proceed with caution and strive to establish some form of compromise. Even if he decides to join the APC, it's crucial for him to sustain an understanding with Kwankwaso, although achieving this might prove extremely challenging. History indicates that when a loyalist transitions their allegiance—even in a minor capacity—it becomes exceedingly difficult to reconcile the relationships between the competing factions.

Regarding Kwankwaso, I believe he is exercising considerable caution. At the highest levels, he is aware of who he is dealing with. He and President Tinubu were garnering opportunities when they were both governors; they are contemporaries. He understands the political intricacies and strategic calculations at that stature. He does not wish to enter the APC only to be engulfed or rendered ineffective. He is attempting to secure his position to ensure his aspirations for 2031 remain intact.

You have pointed out that the APC is dealing with considerable internal discord. How will this development influence the future political strategies of prominent individuals like Ganduje, Barau Jibrin, and Nasir Gawuna?

Truthfully, I prefer not to focus exclusively on individuals, given my affiliation as a party member and my personal relationships with much of the mentioned cohort. The difficulties faced by the APC in Kano trace back to 2019. There exists a significant deficit of internal democracy within the Kano APC, as major stakeholders often find themselves excluded from significant discussions. The party operates like an exclusive grouping under Ganduje’s leadership.

Numerous committed stakeholders are dissatisfied due to their lack of involvement in decision-making. If those of us who have contributed substantially to the APC's accomplishments are neglected, one might ponder how Abba will navigate this circumstance. It is essential, regardless of your position as governor, to foster inclusivity in discussions and decisions.

The ordeal is immense, especially with the short interval before the 2027 election. The journey ahead will not be straightforward for him. Even Barau is grappling with difficulties. Despite his standing as a significant figure nationally, he confronts numerous obstacles—let alone an individual who is just becoming established.

Presently, it’s worth noting that Abba has initiated lawsuits against Ganduje and is looking into various allegations.

In summary, Engineer Bashir Ishaq Bashir, a leading member of the APC in Kano and the former Labour Party gubernatorial candidate, elucidates the competing interests, rivalries, and structural challenges that lie ahead for the governor ahead of the 2027 general elections. Within this complex political tapestry, Abba's path forward appears fraught with obstacles on multiple levels. He has publicly accused Ganduje, along with his family, of corruption, yet that same individual currently wields control over the APC in Kano.

Will Abba renounce those allegations? Will he now dub Ganduje as a paragon of virtue? Should a rapprochement take place, it will likely lead to a game of tactical maneuvering that will only become apparent close to the election date. Unless President Tinubu personally intervenes to urge key players to grant Abba the ability to participate in the governorship contest without first having to engage in a primary, it is likely that he will not secure the nomination effortlessly.

It is commonly believed that Ganduje retains influence over the APC's framework as a former governor and national chairman, while Barau is recognized as a key financier with significant grassroots backing.

However, I’m not convinced that Barau possesses true grassroots control. He appears to be a figure singularly focused on achieving the governorship, banking on the notion that financial resources can resolve issues. Assessing the political history of Kano, this is a severely misguided approach. I served as his initial secretary-general during his 2019 campaign before entering the political arena myself. Many aligned with Barau are primarily there for their own personal gain.

He lacks a robust structural framework or a dedicated following based on ideology, as his initiatives lack a consistent ideological foundation.

Even without Abba's entrance into the situation, I doubt Barau can succeed. From what I’ve gathered, he has presidential support, but even that will not make his path to the governorship of Kano a simple endeavor. Simply throwing money at every problem is no lasting solution.

Many speculate that after the APC convention, if the governor joins at the right time, he might exert influence over the new leadership structure. Do you believe he has the capability to circumvent Ganduje’s established structure and match Barau’s financial prowess?