Femi Otedola, the chairman of First HoldCo Plc, has voiced optimism regarding the naira's potential for substantial appreciation now that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has reportedly achieved its full production capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (bpd).
In a statement shared on his official X account on Thursday, Mr. Otedola extended congratulations to Aliko Dangote, the President and Chief Executive of the Dangote Group, hailing the milestone as a pivotal moment for Nigeria's energy sector and the wider economy.
"With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly. I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below ₦1,000/$1 before year-end is increasingly within reach," the prominent businessman stated.
The naira has recently been observed trading at approximately ₦1,350 against the dollar in the official market.
Mr. Otedola's remarks followed closely after the refinery's announcement on Wednesday that its Crude Distillation Unit (CDU) and Motor Spirit (MS) Block had reached their nameplate capacity of 650,000 bpd.
The company indicated that this achievement came after the full restoration and optimization of the CDU and MS production block, following a planned maintenance period.
According to the refinery, both the CDU and the MS Block, which encompass the naphtha hydrotreater, isomerisation unit, and reformer unit, are now operating consistently at their maximum capacity.
It was also stated that with the CDU and MS Block fully operational, the refinery is prepared to supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily to the domestic market as needed.
This development marks a considerable shift from Nigeria's long-standing dependence on imported refined petroleum products, especially petrol.
For many years, Africa's leading crude oil producer relied heavily on fuel imports to satisfy domestic consumption, creating consistent strain on foreign exchange reserves and contributing to currency instability.
Industry observers suggest that enhanced domestic refining capabilities could lead to savings of billions of dollars previously allocated to imports, alleviate demand for foreign exchange, bolster energy security, and foster macroeconomic stability.
Economists have previously argued that a reduced need for foreign currency to import fuel could help stabilize the naira, which has experienced considerable depreciation in recent years.
However, a report from Kpler, an international energy analytics firm, released in January, had expressed uncertainty about the refinery's operational trajectory for the first half of 2026, citing ongoing challenges with its Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracking (RFCC) unit. This unit's performance affects crude processing rates and gasoline output.
The report had mentioned that the restart of the 200,000 bpd RFCC unit, initially scheduled for February 10, could face further postponements due to repeated disruptions since April of the previous year.
Further elaborating on future plans, Mr. Otedola revealed that the Dangote Group is undertaking an additional expansion project valued at $12 billion. This initiative aims to increase the refinery's overall capacity to 1.4 million bpd.
This expansion will also involve the annual production of 2.4 million metric tonnes of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tonnes of Linear Alkyl Benzene, which are essential components for the manufacturing of plastics and detergents.
"Aliko is not stopping here. He has embarked on an additional $12 billion expansion to increase refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, alongside 2.4 million tons of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tons of Linear Alkyl Benzene for detergent production. Work has already commenced in earnest," Mr. Otedola commented.
He characterized these developments as transformative for Nigeria and the broader African continent, emphasizing that meeting up to 75 million litres of PMS demand daily could profoundly alter Nigeria's energy landscape and conserve significant foreign exchange.
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