President Donald Trump was cautioned that military actions against Iran might trigger retaliatory strikes targeting American allies in the Gulf region. This warning came despite Trump's assertion that Iran’s subsequent response was unexpected, as reported by a US government official and other sources familiar with the intelligence briefings.
According to officials, prior intelligence evaluations had identified Iranian retaliation as a potential, though not guaranteed, outcome. One insider confirmed that such a scenario was certainly highlighted among possible consequences, even if it lacked definitive assurance.
On Monday, Trump emphasized during a White House meeting that the Iranian assaults on nations including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait were unforeseen. "They weren’t supposed to go after all these other countries in the Middle East," he stated. "Nobody expected that. We were shocked."
His comments emerged alongside broader claims from the administration that have yet to find corroboration through US intelligence. This includes assertions concerning Iran's missile capabilities and its pace in developing nuclear weapons.
Concerns about these issues, coupled with claims of an imminent threat to US forces, were cited by Trump and his senior aides as justifications for allied air strikes against Iran on February 28.
Sources further suggested that Trump was briefed ahead of the operations that Iran could target shipping routes through the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz.
Since that operation, Iranian drones and missiles have been launched at various targets across Gulf nations, including US military bases, an Emirati facility accommodating French troops, as well as civilian infrastructures like airports, hotels, and energy sites.
Democratic lawmakers critiqued the administration’s briefings, contending that they failed to provide evidence supporting the claim of an imminent threat that justified the military actions conducted in coordination with Israel.
The White House has not provided immediate feedback to requests for comment, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence has opted not to make any statements.
A US official indicated that Trump had been warned about the possibility that military action against Iran could escalate into a larger regional conflict, particularly if Tehran felt that Gulf states were complicit in the attacks.
However, at a later White House address, Trump reiterated that he had not received any such warnings. "Nobody, nobody... the greatest experts, nobody thought they were going to hit," he declared.
Another source familiar with the intelligence reports pointed out that US agencies had foreseen Israel's military approach, especially efforts aimed at targeting senior Iranian leaders, could provoke retaliatory actions against US military installations and diplomatic missions, as well as allied nations nearby.
It was only after the air strikes commenced that withdrawals of diplomatic staff from several US embassies in the region were initiated, despite prior warnings indicating that Iran could escalate its retaliation.
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