Kano Realignment: Analyzing the Winners and Losers

The long-standing and well-known phrase in Kano’s political dialect, "Siyasar Kano sai Kano," which translates to the idea that the politics of Kano is distinct and can only be truly understood by its inhabitants, has resurfaced in national discussions.

The fast-changing, fluid, and often unforeseen nature of political allegiance in Nigeria's second-largest state has once again taken center stage in the nation's political dialogue. With alliances fluctuating swiftly, once-known adversaries emerging as partners, and political patrons going their separate ways, the frequently cited expression seems to provide a reasonable rationale for what might otherwise appear as politically irrational developments.

It raises questions as to how one might rationalize Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf's current judicial pursuit against his predecessor, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, for corruption-related offenses, while simultaneously preparing for a political collaboration with the same individual he recently condemned as accountable for many governmental shortcomings in Kano.

Even more remarkable is the fact that this new alliance appears to coincide with Governor Yusuf's intent to sever political ties with Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, his longtime political benefactor and Ganduje’s fiercest opponent.

If Kano politics were not best understood by its own politicians, how would one explain the prospect of Ganduje, Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin, former Deputy Governor Nasir Yusuf Gawuna, and Governor Yusuf, each driven by personal ambitions and diverse political pasts, coexisting within the same political faction while expected to tolerate one another, agree on a common gubernatorial candidate, and unite to secure Kano in favor of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election effort in 2027?

These inquiries, alongside what lies ahead for Kwankwaso, are the permutations posed by Governor Yusuf’s possible switch from the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC).

The evolving political scenario, driven in part by the Presidency’s ongoing attempts to integrate Kwankwaso and his Kwankwasiyya Movement into the APC—a party that also includes Ganduje—became increasingly intricate when it became evident that Governor Yusuf was set on making this transition without the endorsement or consent of his political mentor. This course of action, as noted by sources familiar with the situation, has strained their long-standing association that spans over four decades.

Tinubu’s Strategy for Securing Kano

Multiple trustworthy sources have revealed to Weekend Trust that the Presidency has intentionally abandoned its initial aggressive approach toward Kwankwaso after determining that Kano could possibly be won without acquiescing to what insiders described as the "excessive" political demands of the Kwankwasiyya leader.

These insiders believe that the Presidency was convinced that Kwankwaso’s negotiating leverage had significantly diminished, particularly following the gradual defection of some of his prominent allies to the APC.

The political calculus presented to the President, as gathered, relied heavily on electoral mathematics. During the 2023 gubernatorial elections, the NNPP, represented by Yusuf and supported by influential figures such as Senator Kawu Sumaila, Representatives Alhassan Ado Rurum, Abdulmumin Jibrin Kofa, and Sagir Koki, garnered 1,019,602 votes, which accounted for 51.55 percent of the total votes cast. Meanwhile, the APC's candidate, Nasir Gawuna, backed by Ganduje and other party leaders, received 890,705 votes, corresponding to 45.03 percent.

Presidential strategists asserted that with Sumaila, Rurum, Kofa, and Koki having already returned to the APC with their political networks largely intact, securing Governor Yusuf, who oversees the state's executive machinery and holds a crucial segment of the Kwankwasiyya grassroots structure, could decisively tip the scales in favor of the APC in the upcoming 2027 elections.

They also pointed to the results of the 2023 presidential election as a further justification. Kwankwaso, as the presidential candidate of the NNPP, obtained 997,279 votes in Kano, amounting to 59.55 percent of the total cast. Despite losing the state, President Tinubu achieved 517,341 votes, representing 30.88 percent, which was his second-highest vote count nationally.

“A senior source told Weekend Trust on condition of anonymity that the president was persuaded that detaching Governor Yusuf from Kwankwaso would work to his advantage, as it would eliminate the necessity to remain indebted to Kwankwaso or concede too much politically.

“The math favors this strategy, although the response of the electorate remains unpredictable,” the source further elaborated.

The insider continued, noting that strategists conclude that Kwankwaso, having already lost key motivators such as Kawu Sumaila and Abdulmumin Jibrin Kofa, has been significantly weakened.

“They are aware that Kwankwaso has virtually no chance of securing the presidential ticket of any serious party. This is why they are strategizing against a rumored alliance with Peter Obi, anticipating a repeat of past failures. Even if such cooperation were to materialize, Governor Yusuf will remain a pivotal factor in the political equation,” the source asserted.

In a broader context, Dr. Aminu Hayatu, a political analyst and scholar based in Kano, shared with Weekend Trust that President Tinubu operates as a "master strategist" with a penchant for subduing opposition elements by integrating them into the main body.

According to Hayatu, the preferred strategy of undermining Kwankwaso instead of succumbing to his demands reflects a more practical and enduring political option for the president.

He illustrated that the core of this approach involves stripping Kwankwaso of his operational machinery: commissioners, local council chairs, lawmakers, and other officeholders who would typically align with the governor.

“Once these structures transition with Governor Yusuf into the APC, Kwankwaso is left with mere personality and symbolism,” Hayatu remarked. “Without executive authority, converting his influence into electoral success becomes increasingly challenging.”

Hayatu further characterized Kano as one of Nigeria’s four decisive states, along with Lagos, Rivers, and Kaduna, arguing that neutralizing a kingmaker in such a state aligns with Tinubu's established political framework.

By drawing Governor Yusuf into the APC, he suggested, the president effectively dismantles the NNPP’s singular executive stronghold in the country.

Suleiman Dambatta, a former close associate of Kwankwaso, echoed this sentiment, asserting that the strategy's architects believe Governor Yusuf commands the "apparatus of government," and in Kano politics, control over state machinery provides a crucial advantage.

Dambatta posited that this maneuver is aimed at delivering a "terminal blow" to the Kwankwasiyya Movement by prompting internal discord.

“Even if supporters stay emotionally tethered to the red cap, the lack of a serving governor will complicate campaigning come 2027 both financially and administratively,” he cautioned.

Evaluating Key Players Amid the Changing Political Landscape

In spite of the uncertainties inherent in Kano politics, the ongoing realignment generally distinguishes principal actors into two groups.

Group A consists of the emerging APC coalition, including Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin, Nasir Yusuf Gawuna, Rep. Abubakar Kabir Bichi, Senators Kabiru Gaya and Kawu Sumaila, along with Murtala Sule Garo.

Group B embodies the Kwankwasiyya Movement, and whichever political platform it eventually embraces, pivotal figures include Kwankwaso, Kano Deputy Governor Aminu Abdussalam Gwarzo, Senator Rufai Hanga, and others.

Group A

Ganduje: The former two-term governor is widely seen as the current leader of the APC in Kano. The circumstances surrounding his departure from the national chairmanship hinted at a period of political retreat, particularly amid speculation that President Tinubu was contemplating offering him an ambassadorial role.

However, Hayatu contended that Ganduje is far from a passive participant. He portrayed him as a “shrewd strategist” whose political relevance has been substantially revitalized by the possibility of Governor Yusuf’s defection.

By potentially being tasked by the APC national leadership to welcome and incorporate Governor Yusuf, Ganduje has been repositioned as the party’s gatekeeper in Kano.

Analysts conjecture that Ganduje may leverage Yusuf’s defection—especially regarding his status as Kwankwaso’s closest political ally—to make a concerted effort against the Kwankwasiyya legacy.

If Ganduje maintains access to the president, his immediate duty may be persuading Tinubu that success in Kano is achievable exclusively through his team and favored candidates. However, achieving this goal will be contingent upon the outcomes of the party's conventions and congresses anticipated for the early part of the year.

Many observers believe that Governor Yusuf’s counter-strategy would involve eclipsing Ganduje by constructing his own party structure from the grassroots to the state level.

Dambatta cautioned that Ganduje remains a divisive figure in Kano politics, noting that his perceived strength stems largely from federal patronage rather than genuine grassroots popularity — a circumstance that could incite subtle rebellion within the APC.

Governor Yusuf: Analysts regard Governor Yusuf as the “wild card” in this emerging realignment. His most immediate challenge is convincing Kano constituents that he is not the traitor that Kwankwaso and the Kwankwasiyya Movement may depict him as.

Yet, a more significant challenge may lie within the APC itself.

Bashir Ishaq Bashir, an APC leader, informed Weekend Trust that Yusuf should expect intense internal party disputes.

“Having spent the last three years serving as the spokesperson for Kwankwaso’s criticism of Ganduje and the APC, he should anticipate opposition,” Bashir stated.

As per his insights, Yusuf’s political survival hinges on two potential scenarios: either Ganduje and his allies genuinely reconcile their past conflicts or President Tinubu employs executive authority to guarantee Yusuf secures the APC governorship nomination while being insulated from internal sabotage come 2027.

Hayatu warned that although Yusuf may receive a public welcome, he is being “lured into a trap.”

“He lacks the internal strength to contend against established APC figures like Ganduje or Barau Jibrin,” he asserted.

However, Dambatta argued that Yusuf’s control over the “government apparatus” provides him with significant short-term leverage, particularly if he forges alliances with the 44 local government chairpersons and State Assembly members.

Ultimately, Yusuf’s chances for a second term will depend on his readiness to collaborate with the Ganduje-led framework or the resilience of his agreement with Tinubu. Any attempts at asserting too much independence, Bashir warned, could invite sabotage.

Barau Jibrin: Currently perceived as the major contender for the APC governorship nomination, Barau’s political fate now largely relies on presidential considerations rather than financial clout.

Should Tinubu prioritize Governor Yusuf for stability, Barau might be persuaded to step aside, ensuring assurances of a return to the Senate and retaining his current leadership position—a scenario still seen as strategically favorable, placing him in contention for a gubernatorial run in 2031.

Gawuna, Garo, Sumaila, Gaya, and others: Other players are facing varied prospects. Gawuna is largely favored for a senatorial ticket for Kano Central, while Garo is allegedly being prepared as a potential running mate should Yusuf obtain the APC ticket.

Insiders have also hinted that Ganduje might propose Abubakar Kabir Bichi, the chair of the House Committee on Appropriation, as a gubernatorial candidate if zoning benefits his region.

The most intense contest is anticipated in Kano South, where Senator Kabiru Gaya is vying for a comeback following his defeat by Kawu Sumaila in 2023. Both figures are believed to harbor ambitions that go beyond the Senate, further complicating the race.

Group B

Kwankwaso remains the linchpin of the Kwankwasiyya Movement, and this newly unfolding realignment signifies the most significant test of his influence within Kano politics.

Observers characterize the situation as a zero-sum game. Success could reinvigorate his presidential aspirations, while failure might lead to political obliteration.

Hayatu noted that Kwankwaso’s loyal followers are increasingly aligning with Governor Yusuf, potentially reducing him to a “general without an army.”

Senator Masud El-Jibril Doguwa, factional chairman of the NNPP, equated Kwankwaso’s predicament to that of past Kano leaders who confronted the central authority and faltered, warning that remaining in opposition could downgrade him to a localized figure.

Conversely, Hon. Saddam Sani Umar, the welfare officer of Kwankwasiyya, dismissed this view, asserting that loyalty to the “Jagora” remains robust and more impactful than state patronage.

Speculation regarding a coalition with Peter Obi lingers, which could elevate Kwankwaso’s national profile. Nevertheless, his recent statements suggest he has not dismissed the possibility of joining the APC if circumstances are favorable.

Dambatta posited that the governor’s switch might deal a critical blow to Kwankwaso’s status as a kingmaker.

Senator Rufai Hanga: Observers assert that the senator for Kano Central may be an early casualty unless Kwankwaso reasserts his control. His Kano Central seat, the NNPP's final senatorial stronghold in the state, is already under scrutiny in APC plans.

Kwankwasiyya Movement: Despite its visible influence throughout Kano, the Kwankwasiyya Movement is believed to be losing structural power. The emerging division between pro-Yusuf and pro-Kwankwaso factions is perceived as its most profound crisis since 2011.

With expectations that the governor will relocate with commissioners, lawmakers, local government chairs, and councilors, Kwankwaso’s committed supporters might be confined to the organic base of the movement.

However, Umar maintains that the movement is undergoing a process of purification.

“The essence of Kwankwasiyya lies with the masses who don the red cap, not with politicians who cast it aside when convenient,” he stated.

Ultimately, the “Kano Mathematics” favored by the Presidency and the APC leadership is pitted against the “Kano populism” championed by Kwankwaso. Should the Presidency successfully consolidate the APC heavyweights under one banner, the Kwankwasiyya Movement might find itself on the verge of extinction. Yet in Kano, as the saying goes, the only certainties are uncertainties.